Table 4.
Performance of univariate and best-fitting models (n = 18,838 men and 2952 women)a
| Top ventile (5%) | Top two ventiles (10%) | Top three ventiles (15%) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HADS-only | NSS-only | Bestb | Proportional Improvement Best/HADSc | HADS-only | NSS-only | Bestb | Proportional Improvement Best/HADSc | HADS-only | NSS-only | Bestb | Proportional Improvement Best/HADSc | |
| I. Concentration of Risk (%) | ||||||||||||
| Male physical violence perpetration | 33.9 | 24.8 | 39.5 | 16.6 | 45.2 | 38.4 | 50.2 | 11.2 | 52.3 | 48.7 | 56.3 | 7.8 |
| Male sexual violence perpetration | 20.7 | 21.8 | 26.1 | 26.0 | 32.4 | 33.8 | 42.0 | 29.6 | 35.5 | 46.5 | 51.8 | 45.9 |
| Female sexual violence victimization | 17.5 | 27.6 | 29.4 | 67.9 | 32.1 | 38.3 | 41.3 | 28.7 | 47.6 | 47.9 | 49.8 | 4.8 |
| II. Observed Positive Predictive Valued | ||||||||||||
| Male physical violence perpetration | 2.9 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 17.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 6.7 |
| Male sexual violence perpetration | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 25.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 33.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 42.9 |
| Female sexual violence victimization | 6.8 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 69.1 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 28.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.8 |
| III. Projected Positive Predictive Valuee | ||||||||||||
| Male physical violence perpetration | 68.2 | 50.4 | 79.1 | 16.0 | 46.0 | 39.2 | 51.0 | 10.9 | 35.5 | 33.1 | 38.4 | 8.2 |
| Male sexual violence perpetration | 27.6 | 29.0 | 34.6 | 25.4 | 21.6 | 22.6 | 27.9 | 29.2 | 15.8 | 20.7 | 23.0 | 45.6 |
| Female sexual violence victimization | 151.6 | 225.9 | 241.7 | 59.4 | 139.8 | 163.8 | 176.4 | 26.2 | 138.3 | 139.0 | 144.6 | 4.6 |
Abbreviations: NSS-only prediction from model based on survey data alone, HADS-only prediction from model based on administrative data alone
aThe NSS respondents considered here were surveyed between April 2011 and November 2012. Administrative data were available through December 2014 (25–44 months after the survey). The sample size decreased with duration both because of attrition and because of variation in time between survey and end of the follow-up period. The sample included 18,838 men (decreasing to 16,479 by 12 months, 15,306 by 24 months, and 3729 by 36 months) and 2952 women (decreasing to 2300 by 12 months, 2094 by 24 months, and 687 by 36 months)
bAdditive model for physical violence perpetration and sexual violence victimization; model including interaction with time for sexual violence perpetration
cProportional increase in concentration of risk or positive predictive value of the best model relative to the HADS-only model
dObserved cases per 1000 person-months
eNumber of cases per 1000 soldiers projected to 36 months