Table 2.
Discrimination and reclassification statistics (95% CIs) for 5-year risk of heart failure after addition of biomarkers to a model containing clinical risk factors
| NRI |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C-statistic | IDI | Relative IDI (%) | Continuous | Categorical† | |
| Base model* | 0.8162 (0.7785, 0.8540) | ||||
| Base model plus IL-6 | 0.8264 (0.7904, 0.8624) P = 0.052 |
0.029 (0.008, 0.050) P = 0.006 |
8.73 (2.38, 15.98) | 0.393 (0.210, 0.569) P <0.001 |
0.030 (-0.053, 0.108) P = 0.45 |
| Base model plus hs-CRP | 0.8261 (0.7900, 0.8621) P = 0.11 |
0.018 (0.003, 0.034) P = 0.02 |
5.50 (0.91, 10.45) | 0.215 (0.036, 0.387) P = 0.03 |
0.092 (0.024, 0.160) P = 0.008 |
| Base model plus hs-cTnT | 0.8253 (0.7888, 0.8618) P = 0.22 |
0.020 (0.004, 0.038) P = 0.01 |
6.08 (1.19, 11.70) | 0.403 (0.223, 0.583) P <0.001 |
0.065 (-0.008, 0.140) P = 0.07 |
| Base model plus NT-proBNP | 0.8800 (0.8529, 0.9072) P <0.001 |
0.107 (0.064, 0.154) P <0.001 |
32.2 (18.2, 49.3) | 0.731 (0.564, 0.892) P <0.001 |
0.242 (0.145, 0.342) P <0.001 |
| Base model plus IL-6, hs-CRP, and hs-cTnT | 0.8384 (0.8040, 0.8729) | ||||
| Addition of NT-proBNP to base model plus IL-6, hs-CRP, and hs-cTnT | 0.8816 (0.8546, 0.9085) P <0.001 |
0.081 (0.043, 0.123) P <0.001 |
20.8 (10.4, 32.6) | 0.664 (0.492, 0.828) P <0.001 |
0.191 (0.105, 0.287) P <0.001 |
| Base model plus NT-proBNP | 0.8800 (0.8529, 0.9072) | ||||
| Addition of IL-6, hs-CRP, and hs-cTnT to base model plus NT-proBNP | 0.8816 (0.8546, 0.9085) P = 0.65 |
0.029 (0.010, 0.049) P = 0.002 |
6.57 (2.21, 11.2) | 0.304 (0.117, 0.497) P = 0.002 |
0.010 (-0.040, 0.059) P = 0.56 |
Results were derived from the random subcohort (n = 2,989).
Biomarkers were log transformed.
Base model included age, sex, randomised blood pressure-lowering intervention, randomised glucose control intervention, duration of diabetes mellitus, current smoking, history of myocardial infarction, history of hospitalization for heart failure, BMI, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, current or previous atrial fibrillation, pathological Q-wave on ECG, left ventricular hypertrophy on ECG, aspirin or other antiplatelet agent use, β-blocker use, calcium-channel blocker use, diuretics use, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers use, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, statin or other lipid-lowering agent, hemoglobin A1c, thiazolidinedione use, insulin use, urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.
Using cutoff points of 5% and 10% 5-year risk.
Abbreviations: IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; HR, hazard ratio; hs-CRP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; hs-cTnT, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; IL-6, interleukin-6; NRI, net reclassification improvement; NT-proBNP, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide.