Table 3.

Discrimination and calibration of risk prediction tools for morbidity outcomes

	AUROC POMS-defined morbidity on D3: AUROC (95% CI; standard error)	HL statistic (p value)	AUROC POMS-defined morbidity or failure to return to preoperative mobility on D3	HL statistic (p value)	EBWL < 50% at 1 year	HL statistic (p value)	AUROC: < 28 days alive and out of hospital	HL statistic (p value)
POSSUM	0.60 (0.50–0.69; 0.04)	1.85 (0.87)	0.63 (0.55–0.72)	1.36 (0.93)	0.60 (0.52–0.69; 0.04)	11.64 (0.04)	0.66 (0.58–0.74; 0.04)	19.74 (0.47)
OS-MRS	0.62 (0.53–0.70; 0.05)	NA	0.63 (0.55–0.71)	NA	0.59 (0.50–0.67; 0.04)	NA	0.62 (0.55 0.70; 0.04)	NA

Note: No HL statistics calculated for the OS-MRS as this is an ordinal scale rather than providing a percentage prediction of the outcome

POSSUM Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Morbidity and Mortality, OS-MRS Obesity Surgery Mortality risk Score, AUROC area under the receiver-operator-characteristic curve, HL statistic Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistic, POMS Post Operative Morbidity Survey, EBWL excess body weight loss