Table 2.
Cumulative impact of a 50% cigarette price increase on health and financing outcomes
| Variables by income groups | Lower middle income countries* | Upper middle income countries* | Min-Max (%) | Median (%) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Indonesia | Bangladesh | Philippines | Vietnam | Armenia | China | Mexico | Turkey | Brazil | Colombia | Thailand | Chile | ||||
| No of male smokers aged ≥15 years before 50% price increase (in millions) | ||||||||||||||||
| First (bottom 20%) | 7.3 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 63.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 14-27 | 19 | |
| Second | 10.2 | 12.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 68.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 18-27 | 22 | |
| Third | 9.5 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 63.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 18-25 | 21 | |
| Fourth | 9.1 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 47.7 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 16-23 | 19 | |
| Group (top 20%) | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 47.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 8-24 | 17 | |
| Total=490 | 46.1 | 52.9 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 14.6 | 0.6 | 290.9 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 15.9 | 3.1 | 12.0 | 3.2 | |||
| First: group ratio | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | |||
| Total life years gained (in millions) | ||||||||||||||||
| First (bottom 20%) | 12.3 | 22.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 83.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 26-40 | 31 | |
| Second | 13.7 | 15.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 71.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 26-32 | 28 | |
| Third | 9.4 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 49.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 17-25 | 20 | |
| Fourth | 6.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 24.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 8-16 | 12 | |
| Group (top 20%) | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | <0.1 | 12.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2-8 | 5 | |
| Total=449 | 44.7 | 56.8 | 17.2 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 0.5 | 241 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 16.1 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 3.1 | |||
| First: group ratio | 3.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 14.0 | 3.1 | |||
| Disease cost averted (adjusted for $ PPP; in millions) | ||||||||||||||||
| First (bottom 20%) | 815 | 4120 | 81 | 647 | 296 | 16 | 33400 | 2170 | 445 | 1850 | 363 | 878 | 457 | 16-34 | 29 | |
| Second | 1040 | 3220 | 132 | 538 | 233 | 17 | 35500 | 2260 | 566 | 1720 | 357 | 836 | 494 | 24-32 | 27 | |
| Third | 773 | 2770 | 97 | 405 | 199 | 16 | 24900 | 1980 | 524 | 1170 | 264 | 507 | 436 | 19-26 | 22 | |
| Fourth | 547 | 2190 | 136 | 255 | 118 | 10 | 13400 | 1600 | 322 | 874 | 168 | 290 | 373 | 11-27 | 15 | |
| Group (top 20%) | 313 | 1050 | 61 | 119 | 73 | 4 | 6980 | 818 | 132 | 295 | 93 | 64 | 224 | 2-12 | 7 | |
| Total=157 002 | 3488 | 13 350 | 507 | 1964 | 919 | 63 | 114180 | 8828 | 1989 | 5909 | 1245 | 2575 | 1984 | |||
| First: group ratio | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 4 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 13.7 | 2 | |||
| Additional tax revenues (adjusted for $ PPP; in billions) | ||||||||||||||||
| First (bottom 20%) | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | <0.1 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 5-22 | 10 | |
| Second | 1.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 14.2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 13-21 | 17 | |
| Third | 1.9 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 14.9 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 16-26 | 21 | |
| Fourth | 2.5 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 12.7 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.3 | 19-30 | 26 | |
| Group (top 20%) | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 15 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 19-35 | 26 | |
| Total=122 | 10.4 | 16.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 66.3 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | |||
| First: group ratio | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |||
| % additional tax to GDP | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1-1.1 | ||
*
World Bank definition; PPP=purchasing power parity; GDP=gross domestic product.