Table 5.
Posterior mean coefficients, odds ratios (ORs), and 95% credible intervals (CrI) of non-spatial conditional autoregressive models of market days positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 virus (Vietnam, 2011–2015).
| Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI)Multivariable model (no spatially varying random effect) | OR, posterior mean (95% CrI)Multivariable model (no spatially varying random effect) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River density (km length/km2) | −0.74 (−1.17, −0.34) | 0.48 (0.31, 0.71) | |||
| Human population density (heads/km2) | 0.28 (−0.08, 0.61) | 1.31 (0.92, 1.84) | |||
| Market density (live bird market/10 km2) | |||||
| ≤2.8 | Baseline | Baseline | |||
| 2.81–4.64 | −0.15 (−1.45, 1.16) | 0.86 (0.24, 3.19) | |||
| 4.65–8.91 | 0.90 (−0.24 2.14) | 2.47 (0.78, 8.52) | |||
| ≥8.92 | 0.28 (−1.01, 1.61) | 1.32 (0.36, 4.99) | |||
| Round | |||||
| Round 4 | Baseline | Baseline | |||
| Round 5 | 3.37 (2.39, 4.48) | 26.06 (9.84, 78.44) | |||
| Round 6 | 3.72 (2.62, 4.92) | 40.48 (13.61, 133.16) | |||
| Model deviance information criterion | 200.94 | ||||