Table 1. Main Variables used for the Markov Model.

Variable	Input data
	Basecase scenario	Range
Progression of cirrhosis stage per year14	stage 1 to 2:7% stage 1 to 3: 4% stage 2 to 3: 7% stage 2 to 4: 4% stage 3 to 4: 8%	stage 1 to 2: 4-10% stage 1 to 3: 2-6% stage 2 to 3: 4-10% stage 2 to 4: 2-6% stage 3 to 4: 6-10%
Annual hepatic decompensation mortality per cirrhosis stage14	stage 1: 1% stage 2: 3% stage 3: 20% stage 4: 57%	stage 1: 0.8-1.3% stage 2: 2.6-4.3% stage 3: 15-25% stage 4: 44-70%
Annual incidence of HCC9-10	3%	1-5%
Sensitivity of screening test1	70%	60-80%
Detection of early stage HCC without surveillance25	30%	25-35%
Probability of transition from Early to Advanced HCC13	63%	40-86%
Annual mortality of incurable HCC11,12	50%	45-55%
Probability of receiving curative treatment for early stage HCC26-27	75 %	70-80%
Treatment related mortality
LTx15	9% in the first 12 months and then 2% annually after the first year	3-15% in the first 12 months and then 1.5-2.5% annually after the first year
Surgery19-20	5% in the first 6 months and 0% thereafter	2.5-7.5% in the first 6 months and 0% thereafter
RFA16-17	1% in the first 6 months and 0% thereafter	0.5-1.5% in the first 6 months and 0% thereafter
Probability of Liver transplant listing28	Hepatic decompensation: 17%HCC: 33%	Hepaticdecompensation:11-23%HCC: 29-36%
Duration of Liver transplant waitlist15	12 months	6-18 months
Risk of recurrence after treatment within 5 years
LTx22	13% over 5 years	10-16%
Surgery23	70%over 5 years	65-75%
RFA21	70%over 5 years	65-75%

HCC- hepatocellular carcinoma; LTx- liver transplant; MELD- model for end stage liver disease; RFA- radiofrequency ablation