Table 1.
Selected model input parameters for the CEPAC‐Infant model
Parameter | Value | Reference |
---|---|---|
I. Relative risk of mortality among replacement‐fed compared to breastfed infants (RRRF), by countrya | ||
Kenya; Rwanda; South Africa; Côte d'Ivoire | 1.0 | 3, 5, 6, 7 |
Botswana | 2.0 | 34 |
Malawi | 1.8‐3.3 | 35 |
Zambia | 2.0‐4.2 | 8, 36 |
Uganda | 6.0 | 38 |
II. Monthly infant mortality risk, by scenario and ageb | 49, 50 | |
Moderate mortality (base case) | ||
0 to 2 months | 0.0116 | |
3 to 11 months | 0.0024 | |
12 to 24 months | 0.00067 | |
Low mortality scenario | ||
0 to 2 months | 0.0082 | |
3 to 11 months | 0.0023 | |
12 to 24 months | 0.0004 | |
High mortality scenario | ||
0 to 2 months | 0.0172 | |
3 to 11 months | 0.0034 | |
12 to 24 months | 0.00093 | |
III. Monthly maternal mortality risk, by disease status and ART strategy | Projected from CEPAC‐International adult model | |
CD4 ≤ 350/μL | ||
No ART | 0.0078 | |
3‐drug ART | 0.0016 | |
CD4 > 350/μL | ||
No ART | 0.0024 | |
3‐drug ART | 0.0009 | |
IV. Monthly postnatal mother‐to‐child transmission risk in postnatal period, by model and ART strategy | ||
Base‐case | ||
No ART | 0.0044 | 2, 19, 20, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 34, 57 |
3‐drug ART | 0.0019 | 2, 19, 20, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 34, 57 |
Spectrum 2012 inputs | ||
No ART | 0.0095 | 58 |
3‐drug ART | 0.0020 | 58 |
Spectrum 2016 inputs (proposed) | ||
No ART | 0.0108 | Personal communication with Spectrum team |
3‐drug ART | 0.0012 | Personal communication with Spectrum team |
RRRF was calculated by dividing cumulative mortality risk (at the greatest duration reported in each study) among replacement‐fed infants by cumulative mortality risk among breastfed infants.
Mortality rates are stratified by current age in each month of the simulation and reported for breastfed, HIV‐exposed, uninfected children.