Table 2.
Population-level parameter estimates for the P. falciparum and P. vivax infection dynamics models fitted to data from PNG and Thailand
| Description | Parameter | Prior | P. falciparum | P. vivax | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNG | Thailand | PNG | Thailand | |||
| Blood-stage duration (days) [4] | d BS | 60 (16, 132) | 36 (29, 44) | 135 (94, 191) | 24 (21, 28) | 29 (27, 32) |
| Shape parameter | κ | 2.0 (0.5, 4.4) | 0.50 (0.45, 0.57) | 1.15 (0.79, 1.78) | 0.54 (0.49, 0.62) | 0.40 (0.38,0.42) |
| Pf detectability [43] | q | 70% (64%, 76%) | 66% (60%, 71%) | 67% (61%, 73%) | – | – |
| Pv detectability [43] | q | 48% (42%, 54%) | – | – | 44% (40%, 49%) | 38% (35%, 41%) |
| Time to relapse (days) [7] | 1/f | 50 (19, 96) | – | – | 41 (35, 49) | 55 (40, 80) |
| Liver-stage duration (days) [30] | 1/γL | 250 (195, 312) | – | – | 383 (313, 467) | 226 (181, 278) |
Notably, the estimates for blood-stage infection are for the duration when parasites are detectable by molecular genotyping. Prior parameter estimates are derived from the cited studies. Parameters are presented as estimated posterior medians with 95% credible intervals. The estimates for the P. vivax parameters should be interpreted in light of the results of the experiments on simulated data which indicated that it was not always possible to consistently and accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage infection and the time to relapse