Table 3.
Potential for confounding by indication; predicted percentage with adverse events within 5 years, and treatment outcome after 1 year, based on observed baseline characteristics
| Cohort | All-cause mortality | Malignancy | MACE | Serious infection | Drug survival <1 year | Good EULAR response at 1 year | ||||||
| First bDMARD | Crude | STD | Crude | STD | Crude | STD | Crude | STD | Crude | STD | Crude | STD |
| TNFi | 4.8 | – | 5.6 | – | 5.4 | – | 14.4 | – | 30.3 | – | 31.0 | – |
| Rituximab | 13.3 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 24.2 | 17.7 | 29.4 | 28.9 | 25.3 | 23.2 |
| Abatacept | 11.9 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 21.3 | 18.1 | 31.2 | 31.1 | 27.9 | 29.2 |
| Tocilizumab | 8.8 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 17.9 | 15.9 | 30.7 | 30.9 | 30.3 | 31.6 |
| Switch from TNFi | ||||||||||||
| TNFi | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 16.9 | 16.7 | 36.2 | 36.1 | 17.6 | 17.6 |
| Rituximab | 8.1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 21.2 | 19.0 | 35.1 | 34.8 | 18.2 | 19.1 |
| Abatacept | 7.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 19.5 | 18.2 | 37.9 | 37.8 | 18.0 | 18.3 |
| Tocilizumab | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 18.1 | 17.6 | 37.1 | 37.7 | 18.3 | 18.2 |
Predicted observed percentage (crude) and age-sex standardised to TNFi as first bDMARD (STD).
bDMARD, biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug; EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; MACE, major acute cardiovascular event; TNFi, tumour necrosis factor inhibitor.