Table 3.

Population attributable fractions for population counterfactuals^*

Scenario		PAF (%)	95% CI	Definition
1 Weight loss†‡		9.1	5.3, 12.8	If those who maintained an obese BMI, instead lost to a nonobese BMI between young adulthood and midlife
2 Weight maintenance†‡		23.5	21.8, 25.1	If those who gained weight, instead remained nonobese between young adulthood and midlife
3 Partial prevention‡		34.5	32.4, 36.6	If the total population had a nonobese BMI from young adulthood that was maintained through midlife
4 Comprehensive prevention§		64.2	59.4, 68.3	If the total population had a normal BMI from young adulthood through midlife

*Source: NHANES III (1988–1994) and NHANES (1999–2014).

†Weight loss and weight maintenance represent fraction of cases prevented if one trajectory’s risk were substituted for another, as described.

‡HR_i from Table 2.

§HR_i from Supplementary Table 1.