Table 1.

Impact of intervention scenarios over 15-year period from 2016 to 2030 inclusive, compared with baseline scenario of no further treatment from 2016 (also shown)

Comparator scenario	Number of new HCV infections 2016–30	Chronic HCV prevalence in 2016	Number of new HCV-disease 2016–30b	Number of new HCV-related deaths 2016–30
Baseline scenario with no further treatment from 2016	13.4 [11.9 to 15.0] million	3.9% [3.7–4.1%]	5.4 [4.6 to 6.6] million	1.4 [1.0 to 2.0] million
Intervention scenario	% of new HCV infections prevented 2016–30	% change in HCV chronic prevalence 2016–30	% reduction in HCV- disease 2016–30b	% reduction in HCV- related deaths 2016–30
Reducing PWID-related and high medical and community HCV transmission risks by 50%	21.5 [13.7 to 32.3]	+11.4 [+1.8 to +20.6]	7.6 [4.6 to 11.5]	2.4 [1.3 to 4.1]
Reducing all HCV transmission risks by 30%a	38.1 [36.9 to 39.2]	−3.0 [−8.0 to +2.1]	13.8 [13.1 to 14.4]	4.4 [3.4 to 6.2]
Reducing all HCV transmission risks by 50%a	59.5 [58.2 to 60.7]	−21.7 [−26.0 to −17.1]	21.9 [21.0 to 22.9]	7.1 [5.5 to 10.0]
Continuing current treatment rate (2% of infected individuals treated annually) with new DAA treatments from 2016	10.4 [9.3 to 11.7]	+2.3 [−3.7 to +8.4]	12.3 [11.2 to 13.4]	7.2 [6.3 to 8.3]
Scaling up DAA treatment rates from 2016 to 5% of infected individuals treated annually	23.4 [21.0 to 26.1]	−28.7 [−34.7 to −23.1]	27.2 [25.0 to 29.3]	16.3 [14.2 to 18.6]
Combined reduction in all transmission risksa (50%) and scaling up DAA treatment rates to 5% of infected individuals treated annually from 2016	69.1 [67.3 to 70.7]	−58.8 [−62.4 to −55.0]	42.1 [40.2 to 44.2]	21.4 [18.5 to 25.5]

^aHCV transmission risk associated with injecting drug use, as well as low and high community and medical risks, is reduced by 30% or 50%.

^bHCV disease relates to cases of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma.