Table 1.

Structural model fits of incidence series VL versus rainfall, Natal, Brazil, 1990–2014

Model:	yt=φyt−1+β(xt−φxt−1)+αt
VL incidence	Structural equation		Error ARMA (1, 0)
	β	p-Value	φ	p-Value
Total	0.000336	0.044	0.848261	<0.0001
Male	0.000533	0.003	0.784449	<0.0001
Female*	0.00012	0.559	0.792703	<0.0001
Age group (years)
<1	0.000799	0.021	0.533202	0.041
1–4	0.000559	0.01	0.936519	<0.0001
5–19	0.00045	0.004	0.696984	<0.0001
20–39	0.000442	<0.0001	0.411926	0.053
40–59	0.000275	0.045	0.318921	0.125

Note: Bold values are significant at 5%.