Fig. 3.

Modeled probabilities. Estimated probabilities of a severe and b extreme yield loss (yields more than 10 and 15% lower than the expected value) from generalized linear regression models based on climate predictors fitted to the full yield time series (1959–2016) in the breadbasket region. The dotted blue line is the prior probability (the empirical proportion of severe or extreme yield loss events in the dataset). As an indication, vertical red lines correspond to median yield loss occurrences across all departments larger than −15% (i.e., in 1976, 2003, and 2016). Note that the figure for net yield losses is presented in the Supplementary Fig. 3