Fig. 6.

Time evolution towards 2100 of the four climate variables identified as key in our statistical models. a Precipitation in spring (mm per day), b Precipitation in November (mm per day), c Number of days with Tmax between 0 and 10 °C and d Minimum temperature in June (°C). The anomalies relative to the 1959–1988 reference period are shown in Supplementary Fig. 8. The blue lines show the multi-model signal derived from an ensemble of 13 CMIP5 models and estimated by locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (loess) (solid line: RCP2.6 scenario. Dashed line: RCP8.5 scenario). SAFRAN reanalysis data are shown with dark grey lines (thick dashed line: loess results, thin line: yearly values). The light (dark) blue shaded areas show the 20–80% (5–95%) range of the model outputs distribution assuming the independence of models, for the historical and RCP26 simulations. The associated delimiting quantiles are estimated with a local polynomial quantile regression. The grey points show the yearly model outputs