Table 3.
Lifetime risk (%) of atrial fibrillation by individual risk factor, after adjustment for competing risk of death
| Risk factor and category | Index age 55 years | Index age 65 years | Index age 75 years | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No of atrial fibrillation cases/total | Lifetime risk (95% CI) | No of atrial fibrillation cases/total | Lifetime risk (95% CI) | No of atrial fibrillation cases/total | Lifetime risk (95% CI) | |||
| Smoking | ||||||||
| Optimal | 249/1935 | 38.1 (33.2 to 43.1) | 316/1570 | 33.7 (30.4 to 36.9) | 294/1233 | 30.2 (27.1 to 33.2) | ||
| Borderline | 343/2275 | 39.3 (34.9 to 43.6) | 525/2414 | 36.3 (33.6 to 39.1) | 410/1667 | 32.2 (29.4 to 35.0) | ||
| Elevated | 224/1128 | 32.1 (28.2 to 36.1) | 182/821 | 27.5 (24.0 to 31.0) | 72/299 | 26.0 (20.6 to 31.3) | ||
| Alcohol | ||||||||
| Optimal | 600/4283 | 35.1 (32.2 to 38.0) | 799/3857 | 33.2 (31.2 to 35.3) | 671/2767 | 30.8 (28.7 to 32.8) | ||
| Elevated | 216/1055 | 40.9 (36.1 to 45.7) | 224/948 | 35.6 (31.6 to 39.5) | 105/432 | 30.7 (25.4 to 36.0) | ||
| Body mass index | ||||||||
| Optimal | 236/1785 | 31.6 (27.5 to 35.7) | 314/1537 | 29.9 (27.0 to 32.8) | 255/1126 | 27.2 (24.2 to 30.2) | ||
| Borderline | 343/2136 | 38.2 (34.0 to 42.4) | 422/2008 | 33.3 (30.5 to 36.1) | 319/1364 | 30.1 (27.2 to 33.0) | ||
| Elevated | 237/1417 | 44.2 (38.5 to 50.0) | 287/1260 | 40.7 (36.7 to 44.8) | 202/709 | 38.7 (34.2 to 43.2) | ||
| Blood pressure | ||||||||
| Optimal | 152/1539 | 29.0 (24.2 to 33.9) | 118/778 | 27.5 (22.9 to 32.1) | 45/272 | 22.4 (16.4 to 28.5) | ||
| Borderline | 272/1792 | 36.5 (32.0 to 41.0) | 254/1303 | 30.2 (26.9 to 33.5) | 140/675 | 25.9 (22.1 to 29.8) | ||
| Elevated | 392/2007 | 41.1 (37.2 to 44.9) | 651/2724 | 37.1 (34.6 to 39.5) | 591/2252 | 33.1 (30.8 to 35.4) | ||
| Diabetes | ||||||||
| Optimal | 624/3805 | 36.5 (33.7 to 39.4) | 726/3137 | 32.8 (30.8 to 34.8) | 580/2249 | 30.1 (28.0 to 32.3) | ||
| Borderline | 128/1187 | 38.0 (24.6 to 51.5) | 171/1149 | 32.9 (27.0 to 38.7) | 110/584 | 31.7 (25.7 to 37.7) | ||
| Elevated | 64/346 | 34.8 (27.3 to 42.4) | 126/519 | 36.5 (30.7 to 42.2) | 86/366 | 32.3 (26.1 to 38.5) | ||
| History of heart failure or myocardial infarction | ||||||||
| Optimal | 747/5069 | 37.0 (34.3 to 39.8) | 864/4236 | 33.4 (31.4 to 35.3) | 607/2623 | 29.8 (27.7 to 31.9) | ||
| Elevated | 69/269 | 37.3 (29.1 to 45.4) | 159/569 | 35.9 (31.2 to 40.7) | 169/576 | 35.1 (30.4 to 39.8) | ||
For example, the lifetime risk of developing atrial fibrillation between age 55 and 95 years when blood pressure is optimal at age 55 years was 29.0%, after accounting for the competing risk of death.