Table 1.

Selected Model Parameters

Description		Value	Source
Test Characteristics
Test characteristics for 3 sputum smears combined for active pulmonary TB				28
Sensitivity	All Ages	60%
Specificity	All Ages	100%
DST using Löwenstein-Jensen culture				~*
Sensitivity	All Ages	100%
Specificity	All Ages	100%
Time required before patient is notified of DST results	All Ages	6 months		13
GeneXpert Test Characteristics
Sensitivity non-MDR TB	All Ages	90%		14
Specificity non-MDR TB	All Ages	98%		14
Sensitivity for rifampin resistance	All Ages	94%		14
Specificity for rifampin resistance	All Ages	97%		14
Time before patient is notified of DST results	All Ages	0 months (2 hours)
Public-Private Mix
Proportion of private patients within PPM system	All Ages	0.7		5
Proportion of patients referred to public system	All Ages	0.6		5
Treatment Uptake
Probability of being tested for TB, no prior treatment	All Ages	0.0009		Calibrated
Probability of being tested for TB, prior treatment	All Ages	0.0013		Calibrated
Overall monthly probability of receiving RNTCP treatment for treatment naïve active TB case, given treatment is available	Age	Males	Females	Calibrated, 16,2
	0	0.0968	0.0402
	20	0.1254	0.0477
	30	0.1800	0.0861
	40	0.3743	0.1033
	50	0.4505	0.1244
	60	0.6000	0.1158
	70	0.3346	0.0326
Overall monthly probability of receiving RNTCP treatment if treatment experienced active TB case, given treatment is available	0	0.2178	0.0905	Calibrated, 16,2
	20	0.2821	0.1073
	30	0.4051	0.1939
	40	0.6000	0.2325
	50	0.6000	0.2799
	60	0.6000	0.2606
	70	0.6000	0.0734
Public Treatment
Category I/III treatment		Male	Female	16,12,29
Probability of death****	All Ages	0.0101	0.0101
Default probability, given not dead****	0	0.02383	0.02421
	20	0.02337	0.0178
	30	0.02145	0.01767
	40	0.01663	0.01532
	50	0.02278	0.01246
	60	0.02222	0.01151
	70+	0.02256	0.02038
Probability of successful treatment, given patient has been in treatment for required time and not died nor defaulted****	All Ages	0.98	0.98
Category II treatment		Male	Female	16,12
Probability of death****	All Ages	0.026	0.026
Default probability, given not dead****	0	0.05804	0.05895
	20	0.0569	0.04335
	30	0.05223	0.04303
	40	0.04051	0.0373
	50	0.05547	0.03034
	60	0.05411	0.02803
	70+	0.05493	0.04963
Probability of successful treatment, given patient has been in treatment for required time and not died nor defaulted****	All Ages	0.94	0.94
Probability of testing SS+ at 4 months and receiving DST (per RNTCP protocol)	All Ages	0.57		10
Probability of developing MDR TB if default from treatment	All Ages	0.242		30
Probability of developing MDR TB if fail from treatment	All Ages	0.187		30
Probability of having latent TB after treatment	All Ages	0.197		30
Category IV treatment
Probability of death in category IV treatment	All Ages	0.01689		31
Default probability, given not dead	All Ages	0.01749
Probability of successful treatment, given patient has been in treatment for required time and not died nor defaulted	All Ages	0.7375
Private Treatment Parameters
Probability of cure in one private clinic treatment episode	All Ages	0.0211		*
Probability of MDR acquisition in private clinic treatment episode	All Ages	0.0055		**
Maximum number of private clinic treatment episodes per active TB case	All Ages	7		3
Duration (in months) of one private clinic treatment episode	All Ages	1		3
Self Cure
Monthly Probability of Self Cure	All Ages	0.0064		***

The remaining model parameters may be found in Suen 2012 ⁹, where the model was described in detail.

^~* Presumptive Gold Standard

^*Equivalent to 15% over 8 months, the length of DOTS first line treatment

^**Equivalent to probability of default and acquiring MDR TB in public system

^***Equivalent to 20% over 3 years.

^****Cumulative probabilities of death, default, failure, and success for a complete treatment regimen is given in Table 2