Table 1.

Capture–recapture analysis and NPLC under-reporting estimation

	Notified* (M) No.	Medical campaigns (n) No.	Common (m) No.	Aggregated registry	Ascertainment-corrected estimate (95% CI)† N = (M + 1 × n + 1/(m + 1))−1	Estimated under-reporting (95% CI) % = 1 − (N/M) × 100
(a) Overall registers comparison
Total	23	50	13	60	86.4 (62.1–110.8)	73.4% (63.1–81.5%)
(b) Disaggregated registers comparison
Men	11	27	5	33	55.0 (29.0–81.0)	80.0% (67.6–88.5%)
Women	12	23	8	27	33.7 (24.2–43.1)	64.4% (47.9–78.5%)
Ichoa	15	38	9	44	61.4 (41.9–80.9)	75.6% (63.3–84.5%)
Tacopaya	8	12	4	16	22.4 (12.6–32.2)	64.3% (43.0–80.3%)
< 15	3	9	2	10	12.3 (6.9–17.8)	75.7% (46.8–91.1%)
> 15	20	41	11	50	72.5 (50.4–94.6)	72.4% (61.4–82.0%)
2013	14	27	8	33	45.7 (30.6–60.7)	69.3% (55.2–80.9%)
2014	9	23	5	27	39.0 (22.8–55.2)	76.9% (61.7–87.4%)

CI = confidence interval; NPLC = National Program of Leishmaniasis Control.

^*Cases notified by NPLC.

^†Chapman’s formula used to calculate the estimator.