Table 3.

Effect of key variables on the ICER from one-way DSA

Variable	Model base case value	Sensitivity analysis value	Rationale	ICER for golimumab vs. conventional therapy (£)
Model base case				19,280
Time horizon	Lifetime	1 year	Bansback et al. 2007 [38]	37,556
		10 years		21,907
Age at baseline	31.2 years	60.0 years	Tested in NICE MTA for nrax-SpA [39]	20,616
Sex, males	57.1%	100%	Maximum values	19,342
		0%		19,188
12-week treatment response measure	BASDAI50	ASAS20	Alternative efficacy measures	19,539
		ASAS40		19,153
Annual discontinuation rate with TNFis	5.0%	3.5%	± 30%	18,785
		6.5%		19,712
Annual disease progression (conventional therapy)a	0.07	0.03	Kobelt et al. 2004 [40]	21,427
		0.09		18,248
Annual disease progression post-week 260 (TNFis)	50%	100%	Maximum values	20,556
		0%		18,157
Standardized mortality rate (SMR)	Men :1.63	1.467–1.793	± 10%	19,253
	Women:1.38	1.242–1.518		19,306
Data source for infections	NMA	None assumed	Alternative sources	19,075
		Cochrane review [41]		19,151
Long-term disease management costs	100%	130%	±30%	17,608
		70%		20,952
Utility decrement per 1 unit change in BASFI/BASDAI	100%	130%	± 30%	14,831
		70%		27,543

ASAS20 assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society 20% Response Criteria, ASAS40 assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society 40% Response Criteria, BASDAI bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index, BASDAI50 improvement in BASDAI score of 50%, BASFI Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index, DSA deterministic sensitivity analysis, ICER incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, NMA network meta-analysis, nr-axSpA non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis, TNFi tumor necrosis factor inhibitor

^aAssumed to occur at 50% of the rate of progression on conventional therapy