Table 1.

Summary of modelling approach given variables, their structure and hypothesized effects

Model variables		Temporal scale	Municipal-level observations at temporal scale for n weeks of the outcome variable given model type and data structure defined in Table 2	Hypothesized effect
Environmental	Mean study period temperature, Ts (°C)	Study period	Ts, Ts, Ts, …Ts	Vector habitat suitability
	Mean weekly daytime temperature, Td (°C)	Weekly	Td1, Td2, Td3, …Tdn	Vector reproductive and survival rates; Viral extrinsic incubation period (EIP)
	Mean weekly nighttime temperature, Tn (°C)	Weekly	Tn1, Tn2, Tn3, …Tnn	Vector reproductive and survival rates; Viral generation time
	Total study period precipitation (mm), Ps	Study period	Ps, Ps, Ps, …Ps	Vector habitat suitability
	Total weekly precipitation (mm), Pw	Weekly	Pw 1 , Pw 2 , Pw 3 , …Pw n	Vector reproductive rate
	Mean Elevation (m), E	Study period	E, E, E, …E	Vector reproductive and survival rates; EIP
	Mean vector environmental suitability, V	Study period	V, V, V, …V	Vector habitat suitability; Vector reproductive and survival rates; EIP; Human exposure in urban versus rural areas
Social	Population density per km2, D	Study period	D, D, D, …D	Detection (higher population linked to more case investigations)
	Unsatisfied Basic Needs (% population), U	Study period	U, U, U, …U	Exposure related to housing quality; Access to health centres
	Inter-municipal road connectivity, Rc	Study period	Rc, Rc, Rc, …Rc	Local movement of people to spread ZIKV
	Road density per km2, Rd	Study period	Rd, Rd, Rd, …Rd	Local movement of people to spread ZIKV
Neighbourhood disease intensity	Nearest infected municipality (km), Nn	Weekly	Nn1, Nn2, Nn3, …Nnn	Controls for areas with autochthonous ZIKV transmission
	Proportion of neighbouring municipalities reporting ZIKV, Np	Weekly	Np1, Np2, Np3, …Npn	Controls for areas with autochthonous ZIKV transmission