Table 1.
Estimated parameters from time-series susceptible–infected–recovered–fit model where the seasonal effect α is a parameter fit by the model
| Parameter | Location | Week 13 report—mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) | Corrected Week 13 report—mean (95% CI) | Week 17 report—mean (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic reproduction number R0 | N’Zoo | 20.19 (15.93–24.96) | 18.73 (14.55–23.57) | 16.41 (12.56–21.07) |
| Foumbadou | 11.09 (8.41–14.27) | 14.61 (11.14–18.47) | 15.69 (12.58–19.15) | |
| Gueasso | 13.38 (9.82–17.38) | 17.50 (13.79–21.51) | 11.64 (9.08–14.79) | |
| Gama Berema | 13.59 (9.72–17.93) | 18.40 (14.48–22.44) | 12.02 (9.52–14.76) | |
| Kokota | 15.80 (10.97–20.46) | 15.11 (12.61–19.63) | 16.28 (12.73–19.66) | |
| Laine | 18.48 (14.32–22.67) | 19.56 (14.76–24.19) | 17.16 (14.42–19.90) | |
| Less than 1 year’s susceptibility | N’Zoo | 42% (25–63%) | 31% (17–50%) | 21% (13–33%) |
| Foumbadou | 51% (37–68%) | 37% (24–50%) | 26% (19–35%) | |
| Gueasso | 37% (19–55%) | 24% (10–39%) | 15% (7–21%) | |
| Gama Berema | 36% (20–54%) | 29% (16–44%) | 18% (11–27%) | |
| Kokota | 45% (30–62%) | 18% (0–38%) | 10% (1–15%) | |
| Laine | 41% (24–60%) | 33% (18–48%) | 19% (11–30%) | |
| 1–5’s susceptibility | N’Zoo | 30% (25–35%) | 29% (24–35%) | 27% (22%–33%) |
| Foumbadou | 26% (21–31%) | 27% (22–32%) | 23% (19–27%) | |
| Gueasso | 26% (21–31%) | 28% (23–32%) | 25% (20–28%) | |
| Gama Berema | 26% (21–31%) | 29% (24–35%) | 25% (21–29%) | |
| Kokota | 27% (22–32%) | 27% (22–31%) | 29% (24–35%) | |
| Laine | 29% (24–34%) | 29% (23–34%) | 27% (13–26%) | |
| 6–10’s susceptibility | N’Zoo | 18% (10–29%) | 18% (9–30%) | 19% (12–28%) |
| Foumbadou | 9% (1–21%) | 13% (1–24%) | 15% (9–22%) | |
| Gueasso | 17% (9–27%) | 19% (11–28%) | 20% (15–27%) | |
| Gama Berema | 12% (2–23%) | 12% (2–23%) | 14% (8–20%) | |
| Kokota | 10% (0–22%) | 19% (12–26%) | 20% (15–27%) | |
| Laine | 15% (4–25%) | 17% (6–27%) | 19% (13–26%) | |
| 11–15’s susceptibility | N’Zoo | 8% (2–19%) | 4% (0–10%) | 6% (2–12%) |
| Foumbadou | 8% (2–13%) | 5% (2–10%) | 8% (5–12%) | |
| Gueasso | 5% (0–13%) | 3% (0–8%) | 0% (0–1%) | |
| Gama Berema | 5% (0–13%) | 3% (0–8%) | 1% (0–5%) | |
| Kokota | 2% (0–11%) | 1% (0–7%) | 0% (0–2%) | |
| Laine | 6% (0–14%) | 4% (0–9%) | 2% (0–8%) | |
| 16+ susceptibility | N’Zoo | 3% (1–6%) | 3% (1–7%) | 2% (1–4%) |
| Foumbadou | 1% (1–3%) | 2% (0–5%) | 1% (0–2%) | |
| Gueasso | 2% (0–4%) | 2% (0–4%) | 0% (0–1%) | |
| Gama Berema | 3% (1–5%) | 3% (1–5%) | 1% (0–3%) | |
| Kokota | 1% (0–3%) | 0% (0–3%) | 2% (0–3%) | |
| Laine | 2% (0–5%) | 3% (0–5%) | 1% (0–2%) | |
| Seasonal effect α | N’Zoo | 0.31 (0.21–0.46) | 0.33 (0.21–0.49) | 0.45 (0.39–0.59) |
| Foumbadou | 0.44 (0.32–0.56) | 0.44 (0.28–0.57) | 0.48 (0.34–0.59) | |
| Gueasso | 0.44 (0.31–0.56) | 0.44 (0.31–0.56) | 0.46 (0.33–0.57) | |
| Gama Berema | 0.45 (0.32–0.56) | 0.44 (0.31–0.56) | 0.45 (0.32–0.57) | |
| Kokota | 0.44 (0.32–0.56) | 0.43 (0.31–0.53) | 0.51 (0.34–0.58) | |
| Laine | 0.44 (0.32–0.56) | 0.45 (0.31–0.57) | 0.43 (0.31–0.55) | |
| Reporting rate δ | Foumbadou | 8% (5–13%) | 14% (8–27%) | 20% (16–26%) |
| Gueasso | 14% (8–25%) | 32% (23–43%) | 17% (14–22%) | |
| Gama Berema | 16% (10–26%) | 36% (22–69%) | 17% (13–22%) | |
| Kokota | 40% (5–100%) | 6% (5–9%) | 6% (5–9%) | |
| Laine | 7% (5–14%) | 7% (5–12%) | 6% (5–8%) |
The final three columns describe which data were used to fit the model.