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. 2018 May 16;8:7713. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26023-1

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Relative prediction error for radiation model fitted to individual countries. Relative prediction error versus destination population size and trip distance for trips beginning at survey sites in Mali (panels A–D), Burkina Faso (panels E–G), Zambia (panels H–L) and Tanzania (panels M–P). Predicted travel frequencies are from radiation model B fitted to individual countries with parameter values in Table 1. Grid cells represent the average scaled model error for destinations falling within the corresponding range of destination population sizes and trip distances.