Table 3.

Synthetic control results by country.

Country	Average effect (%)	Effect after 5 years (%)	Effect after 10 years (%)	RMSPE	Pseudo p-value
Uruguay	−11.09	−10.69	−19.53	0.18	0.16
Brazil	−8.25	−7.95	−15.56	0.16	0.05
El Salvador	−6.10	−5.13	−14.60	0.01	0.00
Bolivia	−6.19	−6.48	−8.73	0.68	0.38
Peru	−2.94	−2.74	−6.64	0.23	0.32
Ghana	−3.18	−3.07	−6.29	0.07	0.03
Mexico	−4.57	−5.14	−6.21	0.29	0.33
Costa Rica	−1.93	−0.97	−5.37	0.13	0.08
Albania	−2.34	−2.23	−5.22	0.03	0.03
Paraguay	−1.94	−1.77	−4.77	0.04	0.00
Mauritania	−2.40	−2.20	−4.71	0.37	0.35
Jamaica	−1.69	−1.61	−3.99	0.11	0.05
South Africa	−1.43	−1.47	−1.88	0.11	0.11
Honduras	−0.57	−0.53	−1.27	0.01	0.00
Kenya	−0.17	−0.13	−0.68	0.20	0.76
Guatemala	−0.19	−0.13	−0.67	0.11	0.65
Ecuador	0.11	0.22	−0.54	0.07	0.59
Cameroon	−0.26	−0.40	−0.30	0.10	0.46
Mali	0.53	0.56	0.53	0.03	0.03
Benin	0.12	0.04	0.96	0.03	0.08
Guyana	1.51	1.57	1.63	0.61	0.51
Nicaragua	0.85	0.82	1.96	0.02	0.03
Poland	1.85	1.89	3.04	0.04	0.05
Uganda	1.13	0.89	3.20	0.10	0.03
Niger	2.13	2.19	3.27	0.23	0.16
Mozambique	0.22	−0.19	3.93	1.69	0.84
Zambia	4.09	4.77	4.14	0.28	0.06
Colombia	2.13	2.21	4.44	0.01	0.00
Bulgaria	2.26	2.20	4.95	0.05	0.03
Hungary	4.70	4.66	9.15	0.03	0.00
Argentina	7.11	6.58	14.71	0.02	0.06
Philippines	8.51	7.36	20.81	0.24	0.00

Notes: Pseudo p-values show the proportion of placebo effects in a country's pool of comparison countries that are at least as large as the actual effect in the treated country.