Table 2.
Results of multi-level logistic regression modelling of the odds that children aged under 15 years comprised 80–100% of smallpox burials.a
| Intercept-only model |
Bivariate models |
Full model |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| OR (S.E.) | OR (S.E.) | Adjusted OR (S.E.) | |
| Intercept | 0.556 (0.566) | 4.061 (1.797)** | |
| Parish-level variables | |||
| (ln) population 1801 | 1.818 (0.605) | ||
| (ln) population density 1801 | 2.150 (0.774)* | ||
| Distance to transport major route >=2 km | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
| < 2 km | 5.504 (5.510) | 10.051 (11.085)* | |
| (ln) Poor law expenditure, 1803 | 0.071 (0.067)** | ||
| Extent of settlement nucleation: low | 1.000 | ||
| medium | 0.610 (0.745) | ||
| High | 0.172 (0.259) | ||
| County-level variables | |||
| Cattle density, 1870 | 1.599 (0.261)** | ||
| pest house(s) in use 1670-1800 | 0.005 (0.005)*** | 0.016 (0.020)** | |
| Mass inoculation: none | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
| comprehensive, parish-sponsored | 0.003 (0.004)*** | 0.124 (0.121)* | |
| partial, charitable | 16.523 (29.411) | 6.334 (7.022) | |
| Variance: parish-level | 3.29 | 3.29 | |
| Variance: county-level | 23.22 | 0.00 | |
| Deviance from intercept-only model | 44.09 (4 d.f.)*** | ||
| P same as ordinary logistic model | 0.000 | 1.000 | |
a
P values P < 0.05 (*), P < 0.01 (**) P < 0.001 (***).