Table 2.

Odds ratios (95% CI) for incident chronic disease according to level of psychological distress (n = 16,485).

Chronic disease	Level of psychological distress				p-value for linear trend
	Asymptomatic n = 9482	Low n = 4362	Moderate n = 1346	High n = 1295
Arthritis	n = 206	n = 120	n = 39	n = 45
Model 1a	1.00	1.61 (1.28–2.03)⁎⁎	1.78 (1.25–2.54)⁎⁎	2.33 (1.67–3.27)⁎⁎	<0.001
Model 2b	1.00	1.62 (1.28–2.04)⁎⁎	1.79 (1.25–2.55)⁎⁎	2.30 (1.64–3.24)⁎⁎	<0.001
Model 3c	1.00	1.58 (1.25–2.00)⁎⁎	1.78 (1.25–2.54)⁎⁎	2.22 (1.58–2.13)⁎⁎	<0.001
Model 4d	1.00	1.57 (1.24–1.99)⁎⁎	1.72 (1.20–2.46)⁎⁎	2.11 (1.50–2.98)⁎⁎	<0.001
CVD	n = 86	n = 48	n = 16	n = 23
Model 1a	1.00	1.54 (1.08–2.21)⁎	1.90 (1.10–3.28)⁎	3.38 (2.09–5.45)⁎⁎	<0.001
Model 2b	1.00	1.53 (1.07–2.19)⁎	1.88 (1.09–3.25)⁎	3.19 (1.97–5.17)⁎⁎	<0.001
Model 3c	1.00	1.45 (1.01–2.09)⁎	1.80 (1.04–3.13)⁎	2.98 (1.83–4.85)⁎⁎	<0.001
Model 4d	1.00	1.46 (1.02–2.10)⁎	1.77 (1.02–3.08)⁎	2.89 (1.77–4.74)⁎⁎	<0.001
COPD	n = 23	n = 15	n = 8	n = 9
Model 1a	1.00	1.58 (0.82–3.04)	2.83 (1.26–6.37)⁎	3.52 (1.61–7.71)⁎⁎	<0.001
Model 2b	1.00	1.52 (0.79–2.92)	2.54 (1.12–5.76)⁎	2.99 (1.35–6.60)⁎⁎	0.002
Model 3c	1.00	1.48 (0.77–2.87)	2.50 (1.10–5.69)⁎	2.91 (1.31–6.47)⁎⁎	0.003
Model 4d	1.00	1.44 (0.74–2.78)	2.25 (0.99–5.15)	2.48 (1.11–5.56)⁎	0.011
Diabetes	n = 82	n = 30	n = 16	n = 13
Model 1a	1.00	0.91 (0.60–1.40)	1.71 (0.99–2.94)	1.54 (0.85–2.80)	0.07
Model 2b	1.00	0.91 (0.60–1.39)	1.68 (0.98–2.90)	1.48 (0.81–2.70)	0.09
Model 3c	1.00	0.83 (0.54–1.27)	1.58 (0.91–2.75)	1.24 (0.67–2.29)	0.30
Model 4d	1.00	0.83 (0.54–1.27)	1.52 (0.87–2.65)	1.21 (0.65–2.24)	0.36

^⁎p < .05.

^⁎⁎p < .01.

^aAdjusted for age and sex.

^bFurther adjusted for SEP (wave 1), neighbourhood cohesion (wave 1) and marital status (wave 1).

^cFurther adjusted for BMI (wave 1) and other chronic diseases at baseline.

^dFurther adjusted for smoking status (wave 2), diet (wave 2) and exercise (wave 2).