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. 2018 May 22;5:180086. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2018.86

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Copyright © 2018, The Author(s)

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ applies to the metadata files made available in this article.

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(a) Verification of the annual mean North Atlantic sea surface temperature index (NASST), which is the non-detrended, non-smoothed version of the Atlantic multidecadal oscilation (AMO). This panel includes the AMO observations (Obs.) ⁷⁶ and the mean reconstruction (Recon.) with a corresponding ±2σ range of the posterior ensemble. Skill values are indicated for correlation (r) and the mean continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) in the bottom left corner. These skill values are computed over the entire time interval shown. (b) Reconstruction verification of the location of the annual mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the South Asian monsoon region spanning the tropics from 65^°E to 95^°E. The observational ITCZ is computed using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project version 2.3 (ref. 46) available back to the year 1979. Skill values of r and CRPSS are computed over the time interval shown here. (c) Reconstruction verfication for the monthly Niño 3.4 index, similar to (a) and (b). The observational Niño 3.4 index is computed from Berekley Earth surface temperature dataset⁴⁵, which over the ocean is based on HadSST⁷⁷. (d) Coherence as a function of frequency and period between the mean Niño 3.4 reconstruction and the observations shown in panel (c).