Table 2.

Outcomes comparing scenarios with and without a perfect DCIS prognostic test

Measure	No Test	Perfect Prognostic Test for Non-progressive DCIS	Difference (%)
Number of prognostic tests
Total per 100,000 women	0	2,844	2,844 (100%)
Positive tests per 100,000 women	0	1,696	1,696 (100%)
Number of treated DCIS cases per 100,000 women	2,844	1,148	−1,696 (−59.7%)
Percent of DCIS cases that died of breast cancer	3.0%	3.0%	0
Life-years per DCIS case*	7.598	7.598	0
QALYs per DCIS case after diagnosis*	5.879	5.923	0.044 (0.7%)
Costs per DCIS case*
Prognostic test	0	$1,598	$1,598 (100%)
Surveillance mammography for DCIS test-positive cases	0	$705	$705 (100%)
Breast cancer surveillance and treatment for test-negative cases	$13,321	$5,701	−$7,620 (−57.2%)
Total costs per DCIS case	$13,321	$8,005	−$5,316 (−39.9%)
Sensitivity Analysis: Increased quality of life decrement for DCIS treatment†
QALYs per DCIS case after diagnosis*	5.806	5.894	0.088 (1.5%)
Sensitivity Analysis: Greater percentage of non-progressive tumors‡
Number of treated DCIS cases per 100,000 women	3,439	1,125	−2,314 (−67%)
QALYs per DCIS case after diagnosis*	5.932	5.982	0.050 (0.8%)
Costs per DCIS case*	$13,271	$7,044	−$6,227 (−47%)
Sensitivity Analysis: Smaller percentage of non-progressive tumors‡
Number of treated DCIS cases per 100,000 women	2,176	1,165	−1,011 (−46%)
QALYs per DCIS case after diagnosis*	5.780	5.814	0.034 (0.6%)
Costs per DCIS case*	$13,380	$9,603	−$3,777 (−28%)

^*Life years, QALYs, and costs are discounted at 3% per year. Outcomes averaged across all DCIS cases regardless of whether they received treatment.

^†Increased disutility from 0.1 (primary analysis) to 0.2 for 2 years.

^‡Varied the percent of non-progressive tumors from 0.42 in primary analysis (set through model calibration) to 0.3 and 0.5 in secondary analyses.