Table 1. Population, disease, and strategy characteristics for patients who have incidentally detected pulmonary nodules, are at intermediate risk, and were scheduled for CT surveillance alone.
| Model Parameter | CT Surveillance | AABT | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population Characteristics | |||
| Age (years), mean | 65.3 | 65.3 | Tanner 2017, Swensen 1997 |
| Female, % | 47.1% | 47.1% | |
| Smoking Status (Current/Former), % | 76.5% | 76.5% | |
| Disease Characteristics | |||
| Prevalence of Lung Cancer, % | 9.5% | 9.5% | Swensen 1997 |
| NSCLC / SCLC, % | 96% / 4% | 96% / 4% | |
| Strategy Characteristics | |||
| Sensitivity | — | 41.0% / 28.0%* | Healey 2017 |
| Specificity | — | 93.0% / 98.0%* | Healey 2017 |
| Stage Shift (vs Serial CT) †, % | — | 10.8% / 7.4% | Steele 1973, Gould 2003 |
| Distribution of Malignant Nodules, % | |||
| Local | 73.6% | 84.4% / 81.0% | Steele 1973, Gould 2003 |
| Regional | 22.0% | 13.0% / 15.8% | |
| Distant | 4.4% | 2.6% / 3.2% | |
| Overdiagnosis Bias‡, % | 18.0% | 18.0% | Patz 2014 |
AABT, autoantibody test; NSCLC, non-small-cell lung cancer; SCLC, small-cell lung cancer
*41%/93%, 28%/98%: two alternative sets of values for sensitivity/specificity of AABT only
†Based on strategy sensitivity as well as tumor doubling time (basecase = 5.3 months) and probability of disease progression during two-year follow-up (basecase = 55.3%)
‡NSCLC only