Table 2.
Future prediction of cost of illness (COI) of ischemic heart disease
| Item | 2017 | 2020 | 2023 | 2026 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated population (thousand person) | 125,739 | 124,100 | 122,122 | 119,891 | 117,465 | |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 28.0% | 29.1% | 29.8% | 30.5% | 31.2% | |
| Fixed model | Number of deaths (person) | 80,569 | 86,096 | 91,553 | 95,522 | 100,894 |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 88.8% | 89.6% | 90.0% | 90.3% | 90.7% | |
| Average age of death (year) | 78.3 | 78.7 | 79.2 | 79.6 | 80.1 | |
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 635.7 | 665.0 | 690.9 | 710.2 | 728.9 | |
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 70.5 | 71.8 | 72.4 | 72.6 | 72.6 | |
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 1064.0 | 1083.7 | 1098.2 | 1104.7 | 1108.2 | |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 53.1% | 54.0% | 54.5% | 54.8% | 55.6% | |
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 13.2 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.0 | |
| COI (billion yen) | 1770.2 | 1820.5 | 1861.5 | 1887.5 | 1909.7 | |
| Linear model | Number of deaths (person) | 66,367 | 57,789 | 47,249 | 34,512 | 23,860 |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 86.5% | 85.3% | 82.6% | 77.1% | 68.5% | |
| Average age of death (year) | 77.5 | 77.4 | 76.9 | 75.5 | 72.7 | |
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 556.4 | 514.1 | 462.7 | 415.4 | 367.0 | |
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 73.0 | 67.4 | 61.6 | 56.6 | 52.3 | |
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 953.6 | 850.8 | 737.9 | 615.5 | 525.9 | |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 47.3% | 43.5% | 37.3% | 28.5% | 21.8% | |
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 14.4 | 14.7 | 15.6 | 17.8 | 22.0 | |
| COI (billion yen) | 1583.0 | 1432.4 | 1262.2 | 1087.5 | 945.3 | |
| Exponential/logarithm model | Number of deaths (person) | 73,782 | 71,108 | 68,157 | 64,163 | 61,072 |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 87.8% | 87.8% | 87.6% | 87.1% | 86.8% | |
| Average age of death (year) | 77.9 | 78.2 | 78.5 | 78.6 | 78.9 | |
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 504.1 | 465.4 | 425.2 | 386.1 | 351.2 | |
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 76.8 | 73.5 | 69.6 | 65.6 | 62.3 | |
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 1016.6 | 961.6 | 906.0 | 848.1 | 790.5 | |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 50.2% | 49.2% | 47.6% | 46.0% | 44.8% | |
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 12.9 | |
| COI (billion yen) | 1597.6 | 1500.5 | 1400.7 | 1299.8 | 1204.1 | |
| Mixed model | Number of deaths (person) | 73,775 | 71,088 | 68,120 | 64,106 | 60,992 |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 87.8% | 87.8% | 87.6% | 87.2% | 86.9% | |
| Average age of death (year) | 77.9 | 78.2 | 78.5 | 78.6 | 78.9 | |
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 530.5 | 491.3 | 457.5 | 419.7 | 380.0 | |
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 72.4 | 67.6 | 63.2 | 58.8 | 55.3 | |
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 1016.1 | 960.2 | 903.5 | 844.3 | 785.2 | |
| [% of persons aged ≥ 65 years] | 50.2% | 49.2% | 47.7% | 46.2% | 45.1% | |
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 12.9 | |
| COI (billion yen) | 1619.0 | 1519.1 | 1424.1 | 1322.8 | 1220.5 |
Source of estimated population: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research “Population Statistics of Japan”