Table 1.

Parameters of the SIMPOP model that were estimated by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)

Notation	Definition and units	Prior mean values and assumed distribution (parameters or range)	Posterior mean	[95% Credible Interval]	Reference
T	Air temperature (°C)	Asubende (Ghana): T ∼ Normal (mean = 29, SD = 3) Sanaga (Cameroon): T ∼ Normal (mean = 29, SD = 3)	Asubende: 27.9; Sanaga: 26.8	Asubende: [24.3–32.3]; Sanaga: [20.8–33.7]	[23]
T W	Water temperature (°C)	Asubende (Ghana): 27 (25–33) Sanaga (Cameroon): 25 (22–29) Bioko (Equatorial Guinea): 24 (23–25) TW = 0.9844 T − 1.0352		Derived from estimated air temperature (above), Asubende: 26.4; Sanaga: 25.3	[59] [29] [23]
${\mu }_L^0$	Background per capita mortality rate of larvae (day–1)	${\mu }_L^0\sim \mathit{\text{Normal}}\left(\text{mean}=0.27,\mathrm{SD}=0.05\right)$	Asubende: 0.24; Sanaga: 0.25	Asubende: [0.16–0.32]; Sanaga: [0.17–0.34]	[23]
μ P	Per capita mortality rate of pupae (day–1)	μP ∼ Normal (mean = 0.1,  SD = 0.05)	Asubende: 0.1; Sanaga: 0.1	Asubende: [0.0–0.2]; Sanaga: [0.02–0.2]	[23]
${\overline{\mu }}_V$	Per capita loss rate of adult female flies (mortality + emigration) (day–1)	Asubende: a relationship between adult fly mortality and air temperature [23] was used, and the loss term (Em) was estimated: $\begin{array}{l}{\overline{\mu }}_V={\mu }_V\left(T\right)+\mathit{Em}\\ {\mu }_V\left(T\right)=0.0027T^2-0.163T+2.602\\ \mathit{Em}\sim \mathit{\text{Uniform}}\left(0,0.5\right)\end{array}$	Asubende: Em = 0.17 ${\overline{\mu }}_V=0.33$	[0.04–0.37] [0.2–0.53]	This study
		Sanaga: a single term is estimated ${\overline{\mu }}_V\sim \mathit{\text{Uniform}}\left(0,0.5\right)$	Sanaga: ${\overline{\mu }}_V=0.32$	[0.2–0.45]	This study
ε L	Efficacy of larviciding (1 minus the proportion of larvae surviving one day after deploying the insecticide)	εL ∼ Normal (mean = 0.8,  SD = 0.2)	Asubende: 0.99; Sanaga: 0.96	Asubende: [0.979–0.997]; Sanaga: [0.92–0.99]	[26]
g	Length of gonotrophic cycle (days)	g~Normal (mean-3.5, SD=0.25)	Asubende: 3.27; Sanaga: 3.45	Asubende: [2.89–3.61]; Sanaga: [2.96–3.86]	[23]
$\left(\frac{H}{h}\right)$	Human population density/human blood index	$\left(\frac{H}{h}\sim \mathit{\text{Uniform}}\left(100,1000\right)\right)$	Asubende: 586; Sanaga: 535	Asubende: [252–933]; Sanaga: [190–935]	[46, 49]
DBR*	Pre-intervention equilibrium, daily biting rate (bites/person/day)	Asubende: DBR∗ ∼ Normal(mean = 220,  SD = 30) Sanaga: DBR∗ ∼ Normal(mean = 352,  SD = 64)	Asubende: 213; Sanaga: 333	Asubende: [117–270]; Sanaga: [256–435]	[26, 49]