Table 4. Comparison table of the cost-effectiveness of the modelled scenarios.
Negative net costs are essentially savings. Ages 30 to 84. Parentheses contain 95% UIs. Results are rounded to the first 2 significant digits.
| Model output | Scenario | By the year 2030 | By the year 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative net cost (discounted £million) | Current (A) | 4.0 (1.1 to 6.2) | 3.4 (−1.5 to 6.9) |
| Current plus targeted (B) | 4.7 (−0.1 to 7.9) | 1.3 (−8.6 to 7.5) | |
| Optimal (C) | 3.9 (−2.8 to 8.2) | −4.2 (−18.0 to 4.3) | |
| Current plus structural (D) | −13.0 (−28.0 to −3.7) | −35.0 (−60.0 to −19.0) | |
| Current plus targeted plus structural (E) | −11.0 (−27.0 to −1.7) | −35.0 (−63.0 to −18.0) | |
| Cumulative ICER (discounted £/QALY) | Current (A) | 21,000 (−650,000 to 730,000) | 11,000 (−270,000 to 320,000) |
| Current plus targeted (B) | 14,000 (−450,000 to 540,000) | 1,500 (−91,000 to 100,000) | |
| Optimal (C) | 9,700 (−170,000 to 190,000) | −2,400 (−6,500 to 5,700) | |
| Current plus structural (D) | −5,200 (−8,400 to −2,600) | −5,100 (−7,400 to −3,200) | |
| Current plus targeted plus structural (E) | −4,600 (−7,700 to −1,400) | −5,000 (−7,400 to −3,100) | |
| Cumulative NMB (discounted £million) | Current (A) | −3.0 (−8.3 to 5.0) | 0.9 (−8.6 to 14.0) |
| Current plus targeted (B) | −3.0 (−11.0 to 10.0) | 8.8 (−8.6 to 34.0) | |
| Optimal (C) | 2.5 (−10.0 to 22.0) | 38.0 (10.0 to 79.0) | |
| Current plus structural (D) | 62.0 (27.0 to 110.0) | 180.0 (120.0 to 250.0) | |
| Current plus targeted plus structural (E) | 60.0 (23.0 to 110.0) | 180.0 (120.0 to 270.0) |
Abbreviation: ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; NMB, net monetary benefit; QALY, quality-adjusted life year; UI, uncertainty interval.