Table 2:

Initial model performance with 95% confidence intervals

	Regression				Machine Learning
	LR	L1	L2	L1-L2	RF	NN	NB
Discrimination
AUC	0.847 [0.846, 0.847]	0.844 [0.844, 0.844]	0.842 [0.841, 0.842]	0.844 [0.844, 0.844]	0.834 [0.833, 0.834]	0.794 [0.794, 0.795]	0.768 [0.768, 0.769]
Calibration
O:E ratio	0.998 [0.996, 1.001]	0.998 [0.996, 1.001]	0.998 [0.996, 1.001]	0.998 [0.996, 1.001]	0.929 [0.927, 0.931]	0.997 [0.993, 1.00]	0.339 [0.338, 0.340]
Cox intercept	−0.048 [−0.055, −0.042]	0.088 [0.080, 0.096]	0.215 [0.207, 0.223]	0.096 [0.088, 0.105]	0.074 [0.065, 0.082]	−0.122 [−0.133, −0.112]	−2.548 [−2.551, −2.546]
Cox slope	0.980 [0.977, 0.982]	1.039 [1.036, 1.042]	1.093 [1.090, 1.096]	1.043 [1.040, 1.046]	1.072 [1.069, 1.076]	0.951 [0.947, 0.955]	0.113 [0.113, 0.114]
ECI	0.013 [0.013, 0.014]	0.010 [0.010, 0.010]	0.011 [0.010, 0.011]	0.010 [0.010, 0.010]	0.034 [0.033, 0.034]	0.008 [0.007, 0.008]	7.783 [7.758, 7.808]