Table 1.
PAF and number of cancer cases attributable to high BMI and diabetes in 2012, individually and in combination, in independent and conservative scenarios
| Total number of cases | High BMI PAF | High BMI cases | Diabetes PAF | Diabetes cases | Independent PAF | Independent scenario cases | Conservative PAF | Conservative scenario cases | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | |||||||||
| Colorectal | 736 000 | 5·8% (4·2–7·4) | 42 200 (30 600–54 800) | 4·0% (2·9–5·1) | 29 000 (21 500–37 600) | 9·5% (7·6–11·4) | 69 800 (56 200–83 700) | 6·5% (5·2–8·0) | 48 000 (38 300–59 000) |
| Gallbladder | 76 000 | 9·7% (5·8–13·2) | 7400 (4500–10 100) | 7·8% (4·0–11·9) | 5900 (3000–9200) | 16·7% (11·9–21·8) | 12 800 (9100–16 600) | 11·7% (8·2–15·4) | 9000 (6300–11 800) |
| Liver | 543 000 | 10·1% (5·7–14·7) | 54 600 (31 100–79 600) | 14·5% (0·8–19·7) | 80 200 (54 700–107 800) | 23·3% (17·6–29·3) | 126 700 (95 900–159 400) | 16·5% (12·4–21·2) | 89 500 (67 600–115 400) |
| Pancreas | 177 000 | 5·8% (3·9–7·8) | 10 300 (6800–13 700) | 12·8% (9·3–16·8) | 22 700 (16 200–29 500) | 18·0% (14·0–21·6) | 31 900 (24 700–38 100) | 13·2% (9·7–16·6) | 23 300 (17 200–29 300) |
| Kidney | 208 000 | 18·0% (15·5–20·4) | 37 400 (32 100–42 300) | .. | .. | 18·0% (15·5–20·4) | 37 400 (32 100–42 300) | 18·0% (15·5–20·4) | 37 400 (32 100–42 300) |
| Oesophagus (adenocarcinoma) | 31 700 | 28·7% (22·6–35·0) | 9100 (7200–11 100) | .. | .. | 28·7% (22·6–35·0) | 9100 (7200–11 100) | 28·7% (22·6–35·0) | 9100 (7200–11 100) |
| Stomach (cardia) | 72 700 | 8·8% (3·0–14·8) | 6400 (2200–10 800) | .. | .. | 8·8% (3·0–14·8) | 6400 (2200–10 800) | 8·8% (3·0–14·8) | 6400 (2200–10 800) |
| Multiple myeloma | 61 900 | 7·2% (3·3–11·1) | 4500 (2100–6900) | .. | .. | 7·2% (3·3–11·1) | 4500 (2100–6900) | 7·2% (3·3–11·1) | 4500 (2100–6900) |
| Thyroid | 67 000 | 5·8% (2·8–8·8) | 3900 (1900–5900) | .. | .. | 5·8% (2·8–8·8) | 3900 (1900–5900) | 5·8% (2·8–8·8) | 3900 (1900–5900) |
| Total | 1 973 300 | 8·9% | 175 800 | 9·0% | 137 800 | 15·3% | 302 500 | 11·7% | 231 100 |
| Women | |||||||||
| Breast | 1 656 000 | 6·9% (4·4–9·4) | 114 800 (72 700–156 500) | 2·2% (1·3–3·2) | 36 200 (21 400–51 600) | 8·9% (6·4–11·5) | 147 400 (106 700–190 000) | 7·2% (4·9–9·8) | 120 000 (82 500–161 500) |
| Endometrial | 317 000 | 31·0% (27·1–35·2) | 98 400 (86 000–111 500) | 10·8% (7·8–13·8) | 33 700 (25 100–43 900) | 38·4% (34·3–42·6) | 121 700 (108 600–135 000) | 31·3% (27·4–35·4) | 99 100 (87 000–112 200) |
| Colorectal | 607 000 | 7·0% (5·0–9·1) | 42 300 (30 200–55 000) | 3·8% (2·8–4·8) | 22 700 (16 600–29 200) | 10·5% (8·5–12·6) | 63 500 (51 800–76 800) | 7·3% (5·8–9·2) | 44 600 (34 900–55 900) |
| Gallbladder | 101 000 | 12·9% (7·8–17·6) | 13 000 (7900–17 700) | 7·4% (4·0–11·5) | 7600 (3800–11 500) | 19·3% (13·6–25·1) | 19 400 (13 700–25 200) | 13·8% (9·4–18·1) | 13 900 (9500–18 300) |
| Liver | 223 000 | 13·5% (7·8–19·4) | 30 200 (17 400–43 200) | 15·8% (10·9–21·4) | 35 300 (24 400–47 200) | 27·3% (20·9–33·9) | 60 900 (46 500–75 600) | 18·8% (14·4–23·8) | 42 000 (32 100–53 000) |
| Pancreas | 159 000 | 7·1% (4·6–9·4) | 11 200 (7300–15 000) | 12·6% (9·2–16·6) | 20 000 (14 500–26 200) | 19·0% (14·6–22·7) | 30 100 (23 200–36 100) | 13·1% (9·8–16·5) | 20 700 (15 600–26 300) |
| Kidney | 118 000 | 21·3% (18·3–24·1) | 25 200 (21 600–28 500) | .. | .. | 21·3% (18·3–24·1) | 25 200 (21 600–28 500) | 21·3% (18·3–24·1) | 25 200 (21 600–28 500) |
| Ovarian | 235 000 | 3·9% (0·9–6·7) | 9100 (2000–15 800) | .. | .. | 3·9% (0·9–6·7) | 9100 (2000–15 800) | 3·9% (0·9–6·7) | 9100 (2000–15 800) |
| Oesophagus (adenocarcinoma) | 7300 | 29·5% (23·1–36·1) | 2200 (1700–2600) | .. | .. | 29·5% (23·1–36·1) | 2200 (1700–2600) | 29·5% (23·1–36·1) | 2200 (1700–2600) |
| Stomach (cardia) | 26 400 | 11·2% (3·8–18·8) | 2900 (1000–5000) | .. | .. | 11·2% (3·8–18·8) | 2900 (1000–5000) | 11·2% (3·8–18·8) | 2900 (1000–5000) |
| Multiple myeloma | 51 400 | 8·9% (4·0–13·3) | 4400 (2000–6800) | .. | .. | 8·9% (4·0–13·3) | 4400 (2000–6800) | 8·9% (4·0–13·3) | 4400 (2000–6800) |
| Thyroid | 226 400 | 6·5% (3·2–9·8) | 14 800 (7300–22 100) | .. | .. | 6·5% (3·2–9·8) | 14 800 (7300–22 100) | 6·5% (3·2–9·8) | 14 800 (7300–22 100) |
| Total | 3 727 500 | 9·9% | 368 500 | 5·1% | 155 500 | 13·5% | 501 600 | 10·7% | 397 900 |
Numbers in parentheses show 95% UI. PAF=population attributable fraction. BMI=body-mass index.