Figure 3.

Imperial College London (A and B) and Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) (C and D) model scenarios showing prevalence of infection (eggs per gram [epg] >0) (A and C), and prevalence of heavy-intensity infections (epg ≥400) (B and D), in school-aged children (SAC) for settings of high baseline prevalence. Preventive chemotherapy (PCT) is carried out once a year for 6 years and then at the same frequency or twice a year for 4 years depending on year 6 prevalence, which may reach one, both, or no goals (elimination as a public health problem goal reached by year 10 in 36% of the CWRU simulations). A and B, Shaded areas represent the range of basic reproductive number (R₀) values (R₀ = 1.2421–5.0). C and D, Shaded areas represent the 95% confidence interval (CI) of uncertainty with the range of index of transmission potential (ITP) values (ITP = 1–5.6); jagged lines due to 19% of the simulations having prevalence ≥50% at year 6 and therefore subjected to twice-yearly PCT. The corresponding projections for the incidence of infection in the population are shown in Supplementary Figure 12C.