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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence during the World Health Organization precontrol phase (<year 0), attack phase (years 0–5), and consolidation phase (year 5 onward) for 3 different precontrol endemicity levels (2, 5, and 10 cases per 10000 people per year), as predicted from 4 transmission models. Oscillations are due to the seasonal pattern in incidence caused by seasonal variation in the sandfly population.
