Figure 1.

The predicted incidence of leprosy with changing diagnostic delays. A, Output from back-calculation showing how increasing delay (red) and decreasing delay (blue) alter current and future incidence (mean predicted values fitted to Ceara, Brazil). B, Output from SIMCOLEP showing how decreasing the passive case detection delay by 2 years (blue line) and adding a diagnostic test to detect asymptomatic cases among household contacts of an index patient (red line) alters current and future new case detection rate in leprosy in Amazonas, Brazil. SIMCOLEP predictions of the baseline scenario (black line) were based on the model quantification in Blok et al [17]. Abbreviations: dd, detection delay (shorter); ed, early diagnosis including detected asymptomatic cases; NCDR, new case detection rate.