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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Sep 1.
Published in final edited form as: Nat Rev Genet. 2018 Jan 8;19(3):148–159. doi: 10.1038/nrg.2017.104

Figure 1. Variance explained by IQ GPS and by EA GPS in their target traits as a function of GWAS sample size.

Figure 1

GPS prediction of intelligence and educational attainment has increased linearly with sample size. The predictive power of GPS derived from GWAS of intelligence has risen in the last 2 years from 1% to 4%. The latest EA3 GPS predicts more than 10% of the variance in intelligence (P. D. Koellinger, personal communication), more than twice as much as the latest IQ3 GPS. Extrapolating from the results of EA3 with a sample size of over one million, we predict that more than 10% of the variance in intelligence will be predicted from an IQ GPS derived from a GWAS of intelligence with a sample size of one million. IQ122: n = 54,000, r2 = 0.01. IQ232: n = 78,000, r2 = 0.03. IQ333: n = 280,000, r2 = 0.04. EA128: n = 125,000, r2 = 0.02. EA230: n = 294,000, r2 = 0.03. EA3: n = 1,100,000, r2 > 0.10.