Appendix 3—figure 2. Simulated probability of a randomly selected reactor being in the S, R or I compartment for the SORI 2012 and SORI 2015 models Predictive distributions for the probability of reactor animals being in the S, O, R and I compartments for the SORI 2012 and SORI 2015 models.

For consistency, these proportions are used as initial conditions for ‘reactor’ animals used as seeders in Phase I for the respective model scenarios. The true proportion of individuals in each epidemiological state will depend on the distribution of latent periods – which is unknown – but assumed to be exponential for these models (constant rate of progression).