Table 3.
Logistic regressions of voting labour at the 2011 constituency-level elections to the National Assembly of Wales
| a | X1 | X2 | X3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1a | ||||
| Coefficient | − 0.089 | 3.085 | ||
| SE | (0.065) | (0.129) | ||
| Exponent | 0.915 | 21.858 | ||
| r2 | 0.437 | |||
| Model 1b | ||||
| Coefficient | − 0.350 | 1.754 | ||
| SE | (0.053) | (0.106) | ||
| Exponent | 0.705 | 5.780 | ||
| r2 | 0.191 | |||
| Model 1c | ||||
| Coefficient | − 0.356 | 1.149 | ||
| SE | (0.054) | (0.107) | ||
| Exponent | 0.701 | 3.154 | ||
| r2 | 0.079 | |||
| Model 2a | ||||
| Coefficient | − 0.217 | 1.574 | 0.703 | |
| SE | (0.059) | (0.110) | (0.118) | |
| Exponent | 0.805 | 4.824 | 2.020 | |
| R2 | 0.212 | |||
| Model 2b | ||||
| Coefficient | 0.098 | 2.889 | 1.399 | |
| SE | (0.069) | (0.134) | (0.129) | |
| Exponent | 1.998 | 17.974 | 4.051 | |
| R2 | 0.492 | |||
| Model 2c | ||||
| Coefficient | 0.081 | 2.990 | 0.809 | |
| SE | (0.072) | (0.130) | (0.135) | |
| Exponent | 1.084 | 19.882 | 2.246 | |
| R2 | 0.454 | |||
| Model 3 | ||||
| Coefficient | 0.173 | 2.848 | 1.285 | 0.444 |
| SE | (0.074) | (0.134) | (0.134) | (0.143) |
| Exponent | 1.189 | 17.262 | 3.616 | 1.559 |
| R2 | 0.496 | |||
The independent variables are X 1 voted Labour in 2007, X 2 strongly likes the labour party X 3 strongly likes the Labour party leader, Carwyn Jones