Table 4.

Further logistic regressions of voting labour at the 2011 constituency-level elections to the National Assembly of Wales

	a	X4	X5	X6	X7	X8	X9
Model 1a
Coefficient	− 0.471	2.035
SE	(0.053)	(0.106)
Exponent	0.625	7.649
r2		0.258
Model 1b
Coefficient	− 0.538		1.371
SE	(0.050)		(0.100)
Exponent	0.584		3.941
r2			0.132
Model 1c
Coefficient	− 0.361			1.220
SE	(0.053)			(0.106)
Exponent	0.697			3.387
r2				0.092
Model 1d
Coefficient	− 0.630				1.326
SE	(0.050)				(0.100)
Exponent	0.532				3.768
r2					0.125
Model 1e
Coefficient	− 0.372					1.189
SE	(0.053)					(0.105)
Exponent	0.698					3.284
r2						0.088
Model 1f
Coefficient	− 0.599						1.244
SE	(0.049)						(0.099)
Exponent	0.549						3.470
r2							0.111
Model 2a
Coefficient	− 0.499		0.633	0.224	0.671	0.191	0.353
Model 3b
SE	(0.060)		(0.135)	(0.141)	(0.124)	(0.141)	(0.136)
Exponent	0.607		1.884	1.251	1.955	1.211	1.423
R2							0.179
Model 2b
Coefficient	− 0.497	1.663	0.258	0.088	0.538	− 0.140	0.111
SE	(0.063)	(0.129)	(0.148)	(0.150)	(0.132)	(0.153)	(0.146)
Exponent	0.609	5.273	1.294	1.092	1.712	0.869	1.117
R2							0.280

	a	X1	X2	X3
Model 3
Coefficient	0.031	2.597	1.056	0.045
SE	(0.086)	(0.139)	(0.138)	(0.151)
Exponent	1.031	13.424	2.876	1.046

	X4	X5	X6	X7	X8	X9
Coefficient	0.940	0.159	0.070	0.558	− 0.209	0.113
SE	(0.160)	(0.181)	(0.179)	(0.160)	(0.184)	(0.176)
Exponent	2.561	1.172	1.073	1.747	0.812	1.120
R2						0.540

The independent variables: are X ₁ voted Labour in 2007, X ₂ strongly likes the Labour party, X ₃ strongly likes the Labour party leader, Carwyn Jones, X ₄ Labour at good running Wales, X ₅ Welsh government handled NHS well, X ₆ Welsh government handled schools well, X ₇ Welsh government handled University tuition fees well, X ₈ Welsh government handled economy well, X ₉ Welsh government handled Welsh interests well