Table 1. Summary of the input variables used to calculate the risk of LSDV being introduced in France through Stomoxys travelling inside trucks transporting live animals (cattle and horses).
| Input variable | Data source | Min | Mode | Max | Variable | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of importing cattle from an at-risk area that can become infected with LSDV before its detection | Combination of experimental data and expert opinion | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.2 | P1 | RiskPert(0,05;0,07;0,2) |
| Probability that trucks come from an infected farm located in the at-risk area | Expert opinion | 0.005 | 0.0075 | 0.01 | P2 | RiskPert(0,005;0,0075;0,01) |
| Probability of a animal being infected without clinical signs in the farm | Field data and expert opinion The proportion of infected Stomoxys is assumed to be the same as the proportion of contagious cattle |
0.003 | 0.03 | 0.25 | P3 | RiskPert(0,003;0,03;0,25) |
| Probability of the virus surviving in the Stomoxys | Combination of experimental data, expert opinion and Bayesian modelling | 0.0197 (3 days after the infective blood meal) |
- | 0.0525 (2 days fter the infective blood meal) |
P4 | RiskUniform(0,0197;0,0525) |
| Probability of Stomoxys surviving during transport (2–3 days) | Combination of experimental data and expert opinion | 0.8 | - | 0.9 | P5 | RiskUniform(0,8;0,9) |
| Probability that LSDV is transmitted at the destination in the event of a truck transporting cattle to a farm | Worst-case scenario | - | 1 | - | P6 | |
| Probability that LSDV is transmitted at the destination in the event of a truck transporting cattle to a slaughterhouse* | Expert opinion | 0.001 | - | 0.01 | P7 | RiskUniform(0,001;0,01) |
| Probability that LSDV is transmitted at the destination in the event of a truck transporting horses | Expert opinion | 0.001 | - | 0.01 | P8 | RiskUniform(0,001;0,01) |
| Probability that horses come from a mixed farm (with cattle) or that a cattle farm is in the vicinity of the stables | Interbev [36] | 0 | 0.099 | 1 | P9 | RiskBeta(0;0,099;1) |
| Probability that horses go to a mixed farm (with cattle) or that a cattle farm is in the vicinity of the stables | Interbev [36] | 0 | 0.099 | 1 | P10 | RiskBeta(0;0,099;1) |
| Number of Stomoxys per cattle | Combination of experimental data and expert opinion | 0.1 | 3.9 | 22.22 | sb | RiskPert(0,1;3,9;22,22) |
| Number of Stomoxys per horse | Combination of experimental data and expert opinion | 0.2 | 3.2 | 6 | sh | RiskPert(0,2;3,2;6) |
| Number of batches of cattle transported yearly to cattle farms | TRACES | 3 | 7 | 11 | n1 | RiskPert(3;7;11) |
| Number of batches of cattle transported yearly to slaughterhouses | Scenario | 3 | 7 | 11 | n2 | RiskPert(3;7;11) |
| Number of batches of horses transported yearly | TRACES | 22 | 44 | 66 | n3 | RiskPert(22;44;66) |
| Number of cattle transported yearly to cattle farms | TRACES | 90 | 182 | 270 | a1 | RiskPert(90;182;270) |
| Number of cattle transported yearly to slaughterhouses | Scenario | 90 | 182 | 270 | a2 | RiskPert(90;182;270) |
| Number of horses transported yearly | TRACES | 22 | 44 | 66 | a3 | RiskPert(22;44;66) |
| Number of Stomoxys per cattle transported x Number of animals in the truck travelling to a cattle farm | Calculation | 3 | 101.4 | 545.4 | N1f | sb x (a1 / n1) |
| Number of Stomoxys per cattle transported x Number of animals in the truck travelling to a cattle slaughterhouse | Calculation | 3 | 101.4 | 545.4 | N1a | sb x (a2 / n2) |
| Number of Stomoxys per horse transported x Number of horses in the truck | Calculation | 0.2 | 3.2 | 6 | N1h | Sh x (a3 / n3) |
Prob: Probability; Min: Minimum; Max: Maximum;
*: No batches of animals for slaughterhouse coming from the at-risk area. In order to evaluate the potential impact of introducing batches of animals to be slaughtered, a scenario was developed using the same number of batches of cattle introduced on farms.