Table 2. Probabilities of LSDV being introduced in France by Stomoxys travelling with cattle or horses transported from the Balkan countries.

Probability	2.5 Percentile	Median	97.5 Percentile
R1—Probability that an infected Stomoxys reaches its destination
R1f (cattle for farms)	1 x 10−5	13.10 x 10−5	93 x 10−5
R1a (cattle for slaughterhouses)	1 x 10−5	13.10 x 10−5	93 x 10−5
R1h (horses)	0.3 x 10−6	2.88 x 10−6	15.3 x 10−6
R2—Probability that a native cattle becomes infected with Stomoxys that have travelled with cattle going to farms	6 x 10−5	89.9 x 10−5	593 x 10−5
R3—Probability that a native cattle becomes infected with Stomoxys that have travelled with cattle going to slaughterhouses (scenario)	0.2 x 10−6	4.27 x 10−6	37.3 x 10−6
R4—Probability that a native cattle becomes infected with Stomoxys that have travelled with horses	0.5 x 10−9	5.82 x 10−9	39.5 x 10−9