Fig 4. Predicted Lagos bat virus metrics.

(A) Prevalence (%), (B) seroprevalence (%), and (C) maintenance (proportion) in an Eidolon helvum population model with maternally-derived antibody, age structure (juvenile and adult), and a seasonal birth pulse. Parameters are as Table 1, but with the carrying capacity parameter, K to control the population size for each age class. The mean prevalence (A) and seroprevalence (B) were estimated from the results of each of 1000 simulations at the end of 25 years of simulation, excluding the runs in which the infection did not persist (C).