Table 2.
Mortality Risk by IGF-I Trajectory Parameter
| Model | Measure | Value | HR (95% CI)a |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline only | Baseline IGF-I (ng/mL) | 70 | 1.72 (1.43, 2.08) |
| 120 | 1.09 (1.02, 1.17) | ||
| 170 | 1 (reference) | ||
| 220 | 1.04 (0.96, 1.12) | ||
| 270 | 1.14 (0.97, 1.34) | ||
| Slope only | Average annual change | 15% decline | 2.51 (1.50, 4.21) |
| 10% decline | 1.47 (1.13, 1.92) | ||
| 5% decline | 1.10 (0.99, 1.22) | ||
| No change | 1 (reference) | ||
| 5% increase | 1.08 (0.97, 1.21) | ||
| 10% increase | 1.37 (1.05, 1.77) | ||
| 15% increase | 1.96 (1.24, 3.10) | ||
| Variability only | CV | 0% | 1 (reference) |
| 10% | 1.21 (1.07, 1.36) | ||
| 20% | 1.46 (1.15, 1.86) | ||
| 30% | 1.77 (1.23, 2.54) | ||
| Baseline, slope, and variability | Baseline IGF-I (ng/mL) | 70 | 1.58 (1.28, 1.96) |
| 120 | 1.07 (0.99, 1.15) | ||
| 170 | 1 (reference) | ||
| 220 | 1.05 (0.97, 1.14) | ||
| 270 | 1.16 (0.98, 1.38) | ||
| Average annual change | 15% decline | 2.22 (1.30, 3.80) | |
| 10% decline | 1.40 (1.07, 1.84) | ||
| 5% decline | 1.08 (0.97, 1.21) | ||
| No change | 1(reference) | ||
| 5% increase | 1.07 (0.96, 1.20) | ||
| 10% increase | 1.31 (1.003, 1.72) | ||
| 15% increase | 1.80 (1.12, 2.89) | ||
| CV | 0% | 1 (reference) | |
| 10% | 1.17 (1.03, 1.32) | ||
| 20% | 1.36 (1.06, 1.75) | ||
| 30% | 1.59 (1.09, 2.32) |
Note: CI = Confidence interval; CV = Coefficient of variation; HR = Hazard ratio. The specific baseline IGF-1 values were selected to represent points throughout the reference range. The values of slope and variability were selected to represent the distribution of values for these parameters.
aAdjusted for sex, age, race, and the following comorbid conditions at baseline: current lung disease, history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer in the past 5 years, depression.