Table 1.
Epidemiological input values and data sources
| Age group (years) | Base value | Rangec | Data sources | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower bound | Upper bound | Base value | Range | |||
| HZ incidence (per 1000) | 50–59 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 11.0 | [13]d | [23]; assumedd |
| 60–69 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 11.5 | [13]d | [23]; assumedd | |
| 70–79 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 15.5 | [13]d | [23]; assumedd | |
| ≥ 80 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 15.1 | [13]d | [23]; assumedd | |
| PHNa (%) | 50–59 | 15.7 | – | – | [13]e | N/A |
| 60–69 | 13.6 | – | – | [13]e | N/A | |
| 70–79 | 20.2 | – | – | [13]e | N/A | |
| ≥ 80 | 32.9 | – | – | [13]e | N/A | |
| Complications other than PHNa (%) | 50–69 | 5.1 | – | – | [12]f | N/A |
| ≥ 70 | 10.6 | – | – | [12]f | N/A | |
| HZ mortality ratesa (%) | 50–54 | 0.0000 | – | – | [22] | N/A |
| 55–59 | 0.0000 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 60–64 | 0.0012 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 65–69 | 0.0011 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 70–74 | 0.0020 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 75–79 | 0.0037 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 80–84 | 0.0158 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 85–89 | 0.0277 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 90–94 | 0.0641 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| 95–99 | 0.2858 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| ≥ 100 | 0.5120 | – | – | [22] | N/A | |
| Hospitalizationb | 50–69 | 0.020 | – | – | [12, 14]g | N/A |
| ≥ 70 | 0.044 | – | – | [12, 14]g | N/A | |
| Number of outpatient visitsb | 50–69 | 4.8 | – | – | [12]h | N/A |
| ≥ 70 | 6.4 | – | – | [12]h | N/A | |
HZ Herpes zoster, n number, PHN postherpetic neuralgia, N/A not applicable
a % of HZ cases
bMean number per HZ case
c–, Not varied in the sensitivity analysis
dTakao et al. [13] reported the incidence rate of HZ in a community-based prospective cohort study. The lower bound estimates were obtained from Shiraki et al. [23], with –33% set based on the ratio of incidence at ages 70–79 years (0.00869/0.01290); assumed was + 20% of base case for the upper bound. The recurrent HZ incidence was assumed to be the same as the initial HZ incidence
eThe percentage of HZ with PHN was obtained from the same data source as the HZ incidence [13]. The PHN proportion among HZ was assumed to be the same for both initial and recurrent cases
fNakamura et al. [12] reported the overall percentage of non-pain complications including ocular, neurological, and cutaneous ones in a prospective, observational cohort study of Japanese adults aged ≥ 60 years. The proportion at ages 50–59 years was assumed to be the same as that at ages 60–69 years
gHospitalization rate reported by Nakamura et al. [12] was adjusted by the rate reported by Sato et al. [14]. The data at ages 50–59 years were assumed to be the same as those at ages 60–69 years
hThe data at ages 50–59 years were assumed to be the same as those at ages 60–69 years