Table 1.

Summary of the simulated data.

Scenario	Action	ECM 5%	ECM 50%	ECM 95%	TP 5%	TP 50%	TP 95%
(A) ITM: normal hygiene	No control	18.61	18.84	19.07	0.49	5	13.8
	Test-and-cull	18.66	18.89	19.13	0	0	0.50
(B) ITM: low hygiene	No control	18.32	18.56	18.78	71.6	78.4	84.2
	Test-and-cull	18.63	18.89	19.17	7.5	53.2	79.1
(C) DTM: normal hygiene	No control	18.60	18.82	19.07	0	6.4	25.7
	Test-and-cull	18.68	18.90	19.13	0	0	1.52
(D) DTM: low hygiene	No control	18.36	18.59	18.85	66.7	80.9	88.6
	Test-and-cull	18.63	18.89	19.17	0	51.6	84.7

The values show the results after 10 simulated years. ECM = annual energy-corrected milk yield after 10 simulated years. TP = the resulting true within-herd prevalence of PTB after 10 years. Values show the median and 5% & 95% simulation envelopes.