Table 1.
Base case probabilities, minimum and maximum values, for all events within the model.
| Probabilities of Clinical Parameters | Base Case | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCS | |||
| PCS with No AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.716 | 0.64 | 0.792 |
| PCS with Grade 3 or 4 AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.262 | 0.199 | 0.326 |
| Recovery from a Surgical Grade 3 or 4 AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.995 | 0.988 | 1 |
| Death from a Surgical Grade 3 or 4 AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.005 | 0 | 0.012 |
| Death from Surgery*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.022 | 0.007 | 0.037 |
| Surgery to Adjuvant Chemotherapy*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.925 | 0.879 | 0.97 |
| Surgery without Adjuvant Chemotherapy*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.075 | 0.03 | 0.121 |
| Chemotherapy with No AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.592 | 0.448 | 0.736 |
| Chemotherapy with Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.398 | 0.256 | 0.539 |
| Recovery from a Chemotherapy Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.994 | 0.982 | 1 |
| Death from a Chemotherapy Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.006 | 0 | 0.018 |
| Death From Chemotherapy*, ‡, ‖ | 0.01 | 0 | 0.02 |
| NACT | |||
| NACT with No AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.793 | 0.756 | 0.83 |
| NACT with Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.202 | 0.165 | 0.239 |
| Recovery from a NACT Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.988 | 0.965 | 1 |
| Death from NACT Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.012 | 0 | 0.035 |
| Death from NACT*, ‡, ‖ | 0.005 | 0 | 0.011 |
| From NACT to ICS*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.884 | 0.811 | 0.958 |
| No ICS after NACT*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.116 | 0.042 | 0.189 |
| ICS with No AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.924 | 0.894 | 0.954 |
| ICS with Grade 3 or 4 AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.069 | 0.038 | 0.1 |
| Recovery from ICS Grade 3 or 4 AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.976 | 0.942 | 1 |
| Death from ICS Grade 3 or 4 AE*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.024 | 0 | 0.058 |
| Death from ICS*,†, ‡, §, ‖ | 0.007 | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| Completion Chemotherapy after ICS*,†, ‡, ‖ | 0.957 | 0.928 | 0.986 |
| No Further Treatment after ICS*, ‡, ‖ | 0.043 | 0.014 | 0.072 |
| Completion Chemotherapy with No AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.833 | 0.777 | 0.89 |
| Completion Chemotherapy with Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.164 | 0.107 | 0.22 |
| Recovery from Completion Chemotherapy Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.987 | 0.962 | 1 |
| Death from Completion Chemotherapy Grade 3 or 4 AE*, ‡, ‖ | 0.013 | 0 | 0.038 |
| Death from Completion Chemotherapy*, ‡, ‖ | 0.003 | 0 | 0.007 |
Aggregate probabilities were taken from a random-effects meta-analysis of the proportions of events within
*
CHORUS;
†
Meyer, et al.;
‡
JCOG0602;
§
EORTC 55971;
‖
SCORPION.[6–9,13] Min and max values represent the 95% confidence intervals from the aggregate probabilities of the random-effects meta-analytic model.
Abbreviations: PCS: primary cytoreductive surgery, AE: adverse event, NACT: neoadjuvant chemotherapy, ICS: interval cytoreductive surgery.