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. 2018 Jun 15;9:2355. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04595-w

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — Model-predicted virulence trade-offs for dengue virus. a Model-predicted relationship between the dengue virus production rate and peak viral load, a strong predictor for the risk of developing severe dengue disease. b Model-predicted relationship between the dengue virus production rate and dengue’s transmission potential. Green and orange arrows point to the peaks in transmission potential for primary and secondary infections, respectively. c Model-predicted relationship between peak viral load and dengue’s transmission potential. In a–c, shaded regions show uncertainty estimates, derived from variation in the viral infectivity rate (Methods). Primary infections are shown in green and secondary infections are shown in orange