Table 3.
Results of external validation of the ARCAD nomograms for overall survival (OS) and Progression-Free Survival (PFS), with comparison of six-month PFS and one-year OS predictions*
| Group | No. | 1-y OS |
6-mo PFS |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed, % | Predicted, % | % delta: predicted–observed | Observed, % | Predicted, % | % delta: predicted–observed | ||
| K-M (95% CI) | K-M (95% CI) | ||||||
| Overall | 2257 | 69.8 (67.9 to 71.7) | 71.9 | 2.1 | 66.7 (64.8 to 68.7) | 64.5 | −2.2 |
| Age, y | |||||||
| <70 | 1641 | 72.1 (69.9 to 74.3) | 73.2 | 1.1 | 67.4 (65.2 to 69.8) | 65.0 | −2.4 |
| 70+ | 616 | 63.6 (59.8 to 67.6) | 69.0 | 5.4 | 64.5 (60.7 to 68.4) | 63.0 | −1.5 |
| Sex | |||||||
| Male | 1385 | 70.8 (68.4 to 73.3) | 72.5 | 1.7 | 68.1 (65.7 to 70.7) | 65.4 | −2.7 |
| Female | 872 | 68.1 (65.0 to 71.3) | 71.1 | 3.0 | 64.2 (61.1 to 67.6) | 63.4 | −0.8 |
| Performance status | |||||||
| 0 | 1183 | 77.1 (74.7 to 79.6) | 77.0 | −0.1 | 71.5 (69.0 to 74.2) | 68.2 | −3.3 |
| 1 | 964 | 64.2 (61.2 to 67.4) | 66.4 | 0.2 | 63.0 (60.0 to 66.2) | 61.0 | −2.0 |
| 2+ | 110 | 39.3 (31.1 to 49.6) | 45.0 | 5.7 | 45.9 (37.4 to 56.2) | 49.9 | 4.0 |
| Body mass index, kg/m2 | |||||||
| <25 | 1029 | 65.3 (62.4 to 68.3) | 69.1 | 3.8 | 64.6 (61.7 to 67.6) | 63.0 | −1.6 |
| 25+ | 1228 | 73.2 (70.8 to 75.8) | 74.0 | 0.8 | 68.4 (65.8 to 71.1) | 66.1 | −2.3 |
| Prior chemotherapy | |||||||
| No | 1824 | 69.5 (67.4 to 71.7) | 71.3 | 1.8 | 66.5 (64.4 to 68.8) | 64.2 | −2.3 |
| Yes | 433 | 70.6 (66.4 to 75.1) | 75.4 | 4.8 | 67.6 (63.2 to 72.2) | 65.7 | −1.9 |
| BRAF status | |||||||
| Wild-type | 2063 | 71.8 (69.9 to 73.8) | 73.2 | 1.4 | 68.7 (66.7 to 70.8) | 65.5 | −3.2 |
| Mutant | 194 | 47.7 (41.0 to 55.4) | 52.1 | 4.4 | 45.8 (39.2 to 53.4) | 49.6 | 3.8 |
| KRAS status | |||||||
| Wildtype | 1374 | 71.0 (68.6 to 73.5) | 74.9 | 3.9 | 68.6 (66.2 to 71.2) | 68.0 | −0.6 |
| Mutant | 883 | 67.9 (64.8 to 71.1) | 68.3 | 0.4 | 63.7 (60.5 to 67.0) | 61.1 | −2.6 |
| Platelets, ×109/L | |||||||
| <310 | 1132 | 75.8 (73.3 to 78.4) | 76.2 | 0.4 | 71.5 (68.9 to 74.2) | 67.8 | −3.7 |
| 310+ | 1125 | 63.4 (60.6 to 66.3) | 66.6 | 3.2 | 61.9 (59.1 to 64.8) | 61.4 | −0.5 |
| White blood cells, ×109/L | |||||||
| <8.0 | 1199 | 76.6 (74.2 to 79.0) | 76.4 | −0.2 | 71.3 (68.7 to 73.9) | 67.4 | −3.9 |
| 8.0+ | 1058 | 61.8 (58.9 to 64.9) | 65.5 | 3.7 | 61.3 (58.4 to 64.4) | 61.1 | −0.2 |
| Hemoglobin, g/dL | |||||||
| <12.4 | 1132 | 62.7 (59.9 to 65.6) | 66.8 | 6.1 | 62.1 (59.3 to 65.0) | 61.6 | −0.5 |
| 12.4+ | 1125 | 76.9 (74.4 to 79.4) | 75.9 | −1.0 | 71.4 (68.8 to 74.1) | 67.3 | −4.1 |
| Albumin, g/L | |||||||
| <40.0 | 1208 | 60.8 (58.1 to 63.7) | 65.7 | 4.9 | 60.1 (57.4 to 63.0) | 60.9 | 0.8 |
| 40.0+ | 1049 | 80.0 (77.6 to 82.5) | 77.9 | −2.1 | 74.2 (71.5 to 76.9) | 68.5 | −5.7 |
| ANC, ×109/L | |||||||
| <5.2 | 1172 | 76.3 (73.9 to 78.8) | 76.7 | 0.4 | 71.2 (68.7 to 73.9) | 67.5 | −3.7 |
| 5.2+ | 1085 | 62.4 (59.5 to 65.4) | 65.6 | 3.2 | 61.6 (58.8 to 64.6) | 61.3 | −0.3 |
| Bilirubin, mg/dL | |||||||
| < 0.50 | 1115 | 71.8 (69.1 to 74.5) | 73.3 | 1.5 | 67.7 (64.9 to 70.5) | 65.2 | −2.5 |
| 0.50+ | 1.142 | 67.8 (65.1 to 70.6) | 70.8 | 3.0 | 65.7 (63.0 to 68.6) | 63.9 | −1.8 |
| No. of metastasis sites | |||||||
| 0–1 | 965 | 75.2 (72.5 to 78.1) | 76.8 | 1.6 | 70.0 (67.1 to 73.0) | 69.1 | −0.9 |
| 2+ | 1292 | 65.6 (63.1 to 68.3) | 67.6 | 2.0 | 64.2 (61.6 to 66.9) | 61.5 | −2.7 |
| Liver metastasis | |||||||
| No | 495 | 72.9 (69.0 to 77.0) | 76.2 | 3.3 | 68.1 (64.0 to 72.3) | 67.4 | −0.7 |
| Yes | 1762 | 68.8 (66.7 to 71.1) | 70.6 | 1.8 | 66.3 (64.1 to 68.6) | 63.9 | −2.4 |
| Lung metastasis | |||||||
| No | 1410 | 70.2 (67.9 to 72.7) | 72.5 | 2.3 | 66.3 (63.9 to 68.9) | 66.2 | −0.1 |
| Yes | 847 | 69.0 (65.9 to 72.2) | 70.9 | 1.9 | 67.4 (64.3 to 70.7) | 62.3 | −5.1 |
| Lymph node metastases | |||||||
| No | 1385 | 71.7 (69.3 to 74.1) | 73.9 | 2.2 | 68.9 (66.5 to 71.4) | 66.2 | −2.7 |
| Yes | 872 | 66.6 (63.5 to 69.8) | 67.9 | 1.3 | 62.9 (59.8 to 66.3) | 62.1 | −0.8 |
| Peritoneal | |||||||
| No | 1818 | 71.1 (69.0 to 73.3) | 73.4 | 2.3 | 67.3 (65.2 to 69.5) | 65.4 | −1.9 |
| Yes | 439 | 64.0 (59.5 to 68.8) | 65.8 | 1.8 | 64.3 (59.9 to 69.0) | 60.9 | −3.4 |
*
Validation based on 2257 patients comprising a 10% holdout sample from each trial. CI = confidence interval; HR = hazard ratio; K-M = Kaplan-Meier; OS = overall survival; PFS = progression-free survival.