Table 5.

Beta coefficients [95% confidence interval] predicting alcohol problems at ages 16.5, 17.5, and 20 from five putative risk factors assessed analyzed using marginal structural and linear probability models

Exposure	Age	Model	Alcohol problems age 16.5	Alcohol problems age 17.5	Alcohol problems age 20
Parental alcohol problems	≤12	MSM	.056 [.033, .078]	.075 [.047, .104]	.073 [.050, .096]
		LPM	.056 [.033, .078]	.076 [.047, .104]	.074 [.051, .097]
	% change	0	-1.3	-1.3
Peer group deviance	12.5	MSM	.073 [.052, .094]	.053 [.034, .073]	.034 [.002, .064]
		LPM	.071 [.049, .093]	.046 [.029, .062]	.031 [.002, .059]
	% change	+1.3	+15.2*	+9.6*
	17.5	MSM		.129 [.102, .155]	.101 [.074, .129]
		LPM		.146 [.142, .172]	.119 [.091, .146]
	% change		-11.6	-15.2
Antisocial behavior	13.5	MSM	.038 [.016, .060]	.002 [-.024, .029]	.000 [-.028, .028]
		LPM	.046 [.025, .068]	.023 [-.003, .049]	.004 [-.028, .036]
	% change	-17.4	-91.3*	-100%*
	15.5	MSM	.076 [.051, .101]	.103 [.074, .132]	.078 [.038, .118]
		LPM	.094 [.068, .120]	.122 [.090, .155]	.082 [.050, .114]
	% change	-19.1	-15.5	-4.9
	18	MSM			.081 [.037, .125]
		LPM			.098 [.035, .162]
	% change			-17.3
Lack of parental monitoring	13.5	MSM	.034 [-.010, .077]	.058 [.026, .091]	.038 [.010, .066]
		LPM	.063 [.027, .099]	.087 [.047, .126]	.056 [.029, .084]
	% change	-46.0	-33.3	-32.1
	15.5	MSM	.028 [-.009, .064]	.011 [-.012, .034]	.023[-.003, .049]
		LPM	.040 [.006, .074]	.028 [-.001, .058]	.042 [.020, .064]
	% change	-30.0	-60.7	-45.2
Sensation seeking	13.5	MSM	.036 [-.002, .074]	.048 [.022, .075]	.023 [-.028, .074]
		LPM	.065 [.030, .099]	.084 [.057, .110]	.043 [-.010, .095]
	% change	-44.6	-42.9	-46.5
	18	MSM			.051 [.002, .099]
		LPN			.072 [.010, .134]
	% change			-29.2

Notes: MSM = marginal structural model; LPM = linear probability model.

^*These values are aberrant, too extreme, and/or known too imprecisely to be included in the calculation of the mean attenuation of the betas from the LPM to the MSM.