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. 2018 Jun 18;8:9238. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-27537-4

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Prediction results for the districts of Machaze, Massangena, Chibabava, and Sanga over the following 8 weeks after the 1^st week in 2017. The left panels show the posterior mean (solid line) and 95% credible intervals (dashed lines) for malaria incidence. The right panels show the exceedance probability for a relative risk threshold of 2. Dots show observed incidence. The results for the 26th week (the 8th week of the hold-out sample) of Massangena district are not reported because the incidence data were not available.